Patchy O’Connell previews Round 8 of the Gallagher Premiership in which the league leaders, Leicester, take on Bath in the weekend’s opener.
Leicester v Bath – Round 8
Leicester are on track for their 8th win in a row and their best start to the Premiership I can remember. They started narrow 2.5 favourites away to Saints last week but made a mockery of that forecast winning the game 26-55. It was a brilliant performance and I can’t see Bath standing in their way this week.
Bath are still languishing in the doldrums and put up another disappointing display when losing at home last week to Wasps 17-27. Some might argue they have improved a fair bit since their home debacle at the hands of Saracens, and maybe they’ll confirm that here.
Both sides have rung a fair number of changes with a preference for the Tigers bench.
Betting Angle
Bath’s star is in badly need of a shine after a horrible run of performances in recent weeks and I have a sneaky feeling that they will produce a decent performance on Friday evening.
It would take a very brave man to bet against Leicester getting that 8th victory in a row but past performances playing Bath, the Friday evening and with a few players missing due international commitments, I am confident they can stay within in this rather large handicap.
The weather forecast indicates a possibility of some showers during the game, the referee is Matt Carley.
Patchy’s Pick: Bath plus 18.5 at 17/20 for 3.5 Units
Bristol v Worcester – Round 8
The Bears bounced back to best last week at the Brentford Community Stadium and were too street wise and too clinical for the Exiles. Thank you, Lord, that I kept the powder dry for that one. Now that Bristol may have re-discovered their scoring abilities, they should begin the walk up the Premiership table.
Worcester on the other hand landed one of my better bets last week. In fact, they beat Sale and did much better than what was expected. It could, however, be a momentary rise on the graph as they will fight things very tough away from home this week.
Betting Angle
The Warriors delivered the bacon last week and ensured there was food and electricity in my house for another week. The difficult task is assessing what we can expect from them this week, especially as their away form is so dreadfully poor.
This is only the third match the Bears will have played at home this season, these included a 9-26 loss to Saracens and a 25-20 win over Bath and they will relish the home delights. I have a feeling though that the bookies may have overreacted to their London Irish victory last week and feel the Warriors will have taken more from their win over Sale.
It’s not a strong selection but worth following the Warriors with a 14.5 start.
The weather forecast predicts some showers in the afternoon and the referee for the match is Craig Maxwell-Keys.
Patchy’s Pick: 2.5 Units Worcester plus 14.5 at 17/20.
Saracens v London Irish – Round 8
Sarries left it very late last week when scoring a late converted try to stun Quins in the final minutes. They sit comfortably in second spot on the table, 8 points behind Leicester. They host the Exiles who were battered last week by Bristol and are still to enjoy a home win this season. Once again, the ghosts of the early weeks of the Premiership for Irish came back to haunt them, a leaky defence and just no respect for the ball.
There is a small chance of a few showers forecast, the referee is Ian Tempest.
Betting Angle
Saracens can be a funny side at home and quite often cover the handicaps away from home more than the ones when in the comforts of Stone X Stadium.
The Exiles are no team to spend the week’s groceries money on, but I think they can exploit this apparent weakness with the hosts, add to that the weakened side and a fair chance they’ll want to put in an improved 80 minutes. I think they are worth a nibble on the plus 17.5
Patchy’s Pick: Just the 2 Units on London Irish plus 17.5
Sale v Northampton – Round 8
Sale were most disappointing last week when failing to make any impression away at the Sixways Stadium. They even failed to pick up a losing bonus point, but I do expect them to put in a much better shift this Saturday afternoon back at home. They should have AJ McGinty back at flyhalf and this will ensure their backs have momentum going forward and their pack should be able to hold their own having only lost Tom Curry to the England camp.
Saints started last week’s match against the Tigers as slight favourites but were exposed in no uncertain terms despite a mini fight back in the second half.
The weather forecast indicates a fair amount of rain and the referee is Anthony Woodthorpe.
Betting Angle
In general, I start writing this blog before I check the betting, preferring to do my own pricing and to my surprise the Sales Sharks are 4.5-point favourites. I made the match a choice game on current form and that makes picking a selection here so much harder as initially I leaned towards the hosts.
With rain in the air and Sale not a side that likes to cover their favourite handicap tags I’m drawn towards the Saints plus 4.5pts.
Patchy’s Pick: Just an interest in this one, Saints plus 4.5 for 1 Unit at 9/10.
Exeter v Newcastle – Round 8
I was left sweating like a turkey at Christmas last Friday night, being on Exeter minus 2.5 points. The reason for the sweat gushing from my forehead was having to endure a horrendous last few minutes as the Cherry and Whites battered the Exeter try line in search of a win. Somehow, Exeter held on and walked away, limping, glad to escape with a hard-fought victory. One concern for me was that it was a game they should have won far more comfortably, though Gloucester can be commended for some excellent defence.
The weather is cloudy but fine, referee for the match is Andrew Jackson.
Betting Angle
The visitors have only one win in their last 9 matches away from home but do come off a bye, and, like the hosts they are missing a few players.
Exeter made really hard work last week to beat Gloucester with Harry Skinner missing out on 10 points with the boot. At first thought I was leaning towards another plus on the handicap, but after some more consideration I’ve decided Exeter should carry enough in the can at the moment to cover the Falcon’s head start of 15,5 pts.
Patchy’s Pick: 2.5 units Exeter minus 15.5 points at 15/20.
Wasps v Harlequins – Round 8
After wholesale changes from the week prior, the Wasps put in a much better performance against Bath, dominating most aspects of the match.
Quins meanwhile had fought back late in the match against Saracens at home last week to be 22-all entering the final three minutes. However, a clinical back line move resulting in the Sarries openside Jackson Wray crashing over in the corner and crushing the home sides chances of victory.
Both sides are attacking in purpose and with the combination of Wayne Barnes and the good weather there should be a good number of points.
Weather forecast for the match indicates fine and cool, the referee is Wayne Barnes.
Betting Angle
A later than normal kick off on Sunday and this should be a good match to watch. It happens that this is also my best bet of the weekend and I’m hoping there will still be some ammunition to fire, if it’s required to climb out of a hole.
Wasps are a team that can run with the best of them on their day, and given a head start, this has to be, for me, my best bet and I’m jumping on plus 3.5 pts and the outright market.
Patchy’s Pick: 5 Units Wasps plus 3.5 pts at 9/10. 1.5 Units Wasps match winner at 7/5.
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