Brendan ‘Patchy’ O’Connell previews the latest gameweek in the Gallagher Premiership with Gloucester vs Exeter first up in Round 7.
Gloucester v Exeter – Round 7
Gloucester have continued their good improvement shown in the last few weeks and covered their handicap of 7.5 points last week quite comfortably, with the score line not a true reflection of the overall game.
Exeter meanwhile, were left reeling after being thoroughly outplayed by an amazing Exiles performance at Sandy Park last Saturday.
The hosts, starting as 17.5-point favourites, managed to go into the break all tied at 14 all after trailing 14 nil. But Irish continued their impressive performance after the break and turned the form book on its head winning by 9 points, a massive 26-point swing.
Betting Angle
Gloucester should plan for a big Exeter bounce back; it was a strangely subdued performance last week and I feel they’ll be taking their “angry pills” in preparation for this night’s show piece. One point of caution is that they haven’t been at their best since the start of the season, evidenced by their current record of three wins and three losses so far.
Gloucester have shown decent form of late as alluded to and sit in 5th one place above Exeter. The early handicap has opened with the hosts handed a start of 4.5 points and has shortened into 2.5. Exeter lose three players to the England camp and the hosts, two.
Rain in the morning but should be clear by kick-off, the referee is Christophe Ridley.
Patchy’s Pick: Exeter showed again last week that there are chinks in their armour but I’m confident that they can bounce back though after last week’s shock loss and am taking them to cover the handicap of 2.5 at 17/20, and I’ll be having 2.5 Units on that.
Bath v Wasps – Round 7
Bath managed to put their Saracens nightmare performance behind them and achieved a much better 80 minutes against Quins last Saturday. In fact, they led at half time 14-17 before running out of puff in the second period going down 31-17. They failed to notch up a losing bonus point but there were at least positive signs. Whether that was a knee jerk reaction to their humiliation the week before we can only guess but the signs were at least positive in this most recent match.
Wasps were given a right pasting at Saracens last Sunday. The handicap widened from an opening call of 16.5 to 34.5 by the time the game started. It came on the back of wholesale changes to the Wasps side, but they should have a much stronger squad for this visit to the Rec.
Betting Angle
With Bath’s form still under the spotlight I feel there is no value in siding with them this weekend. Instead, Wasps should improve a massive amount and I feel they have the arsenal to manage an away win here.
Both sides are evenly balanced but with Bath possibly low on confidence I feel Wasps will take advantage.
The odds have changed somewhat from earlier in the week however and Bath are now the underdogs at plus 4.5 points.
Once again rain is forecast for the morning, but it’s best to keep an eye on twitter.
Patchy’s Pick: I missed the early +1.5 Wasps and now it’s a 6-point swing with Wasps now -4.5 on the cap. With that having happened I see no more value with regard the cap but, with early morning rain, I’ll be looking at under’s total points at around 47.5 I’m guessing for 3 Units.
London Irish v Bristol – Round 7
After following Irish for the last 4 weekends, my patience had well and truly run out by the time the bus had left for Sandy Park. I was left with egg on my face as they found a remarkable performance to upstage their well fancied opponents. They’re back at home this Saturday and face another heavyweight, though one could be mistaken for a middleweight on current form.
The Bears come off a bye and will be hoping to correct some of their errors and inject fresh impetuous into a poor start to the season.
Betting Angle
I don’t know where to start in this one. London Irish finally broke the ice with a great win last weekend. Bristol come off a bye, they lose a few players but gain a few from injury. Irish are yet to win at home but boast two draws. Bristol will view this is a must win. Makes for a disaster in the making.
Similar weather, rain in the morning, clearing during the day, the referee is Mat Carley.
Patchy’s Pick: Too nervous to have a bet.
Northampton v Leicester – Round 7
Northampton were most impressive last Friday night when running in 10 tries in a points fest at Franklins Gardens. To be fair the Warriors have fallen off the rails and are by no means a competitive outfit at the moment, but the ruthless manner in which Saints went about their business was good to see.
Their opponents on Saturday afternoon are Leicester who remain the only unbeaten side in the Premiership this season. After a tough first 40 minutes with Sale last week they managed a comfortable win 19-11 in a low scoring battle.
Betting Angle
This has the makings of an intriguing match. The Tigers top the log and are looking very comfortable, with no evident weaknesses. The Saints have started the season in stark contrast to the previous one and have just lost just the once, away to Wasps.
This really is a very tough call, but with the Saints losing several influential players including Lawes, Ludlum and Furbank, I feel the Tigers will be less affected by their own absentees.
Showers and patchy rain until early afternoon, the referee is Tom Foley.
Patchy’s Pick: Leicester Tigers minus 2.5 points at 17/20 for 3 Units.
Worcester v Sale – Round 7
The Warriors return home after being dismantled in emphatic style last Friday night in Northampton. Their last four games make ugly reading: 66-10, 3-48, 42-5 and 23-31, losing home and away. Seemingly there are issues either with management or the players or both and now they face a very strong Sale Sharks side who sense blood in the water.
Sale landed the late handicap to save part of my bank roll last weekend, but I was a little disappointed by their second half performance. However, they are a quality side but at the same time they shouldn’t just feel the Warriors will roll over for them.
Betting Angle
I’m expecting a little bounce back here from the Warriors, Sale are a team that in general don’t put sides away and with the home side like desperate rats in a sinking ship, I feel they’ll stay within the handicap. Sale lose Tuilagi, Quirke and Curry, the Warriors lose no one.
The weather is wet early morning and up until mid-day there are showers, the referee is Luke Pearce.
Patchy’s Pick: The Warriors are awful, but I have this funny feeling they’ll stay within this handicap, so 2.5 Units plus 13.5 at 17/20.
Harlequins v Saracens – Round 7
Current Champions Harlequin’s were given an early scare by an improved Bath performance last week, trailing 14-17 at the break before they scored 17 unanswered points in the second period to run out comfortable winners.
They face a tough afternoon with Saracens in a deep vein of form. The former champions have shown no ill signs, having competed in the lower league and are worthy title favourites currently.
Betting Angle
One of my easier picks of the weekend, with just the one loss against Leicester, Saracens look a mean machine once again. Quins lose both Marcus Smith and Alex Dombrandt, two huge stalwarts. There is a cap of 2.5 points and I feel Saracens will easily cover this.
Patchy’s Pick: 4.5 Units , Saracens minus 2.5 points at 17/20.
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