Harlequins v Bristol – Round 4
The reigning Champs return from a bye last weekend and have their second home start of the season. They’ve showed in their two wins so far that they have experienced none of the “wobbles” both Exeter and Bristol have succumbed to in their respective starts of the season.
Bristol only got off the mark at their third attempt and managed to grind down Bath at Aston Gate last Friday night by a narrow 5 points. Trailing at the break and with Bath reduced to 14 men twice in the second half, they managed to give their fans something to shout about.
Tommaso Allen starts at 10 with Marcus Smith on the bench, and otherwise it’s a strong Harlequins side.
Bristol have several key personal still missing, most importantly Fijian wing, Semi Radradra!
The weather forecast is fine and the referee for the match is Wayne Barnes.
Betting Angle – Round 4
With the memory of the sensational semi-final from last season quite fresh in our minds this is a juicy contest to look forward to.
To be honest, the Bears are still to hit their straps, while Quins are the in-form side. However, it’s not often you see Bristol with a fair plus on the handicap either. It’s an important part of my psychic to win on a Friday evening, this in effect allows me to free the arms for the rest of the weekend but this match is very hard to pin down, so only two small interest bets for me.
Patchy’s Picks: 1 Unit Bristol Bears plus 6.5pts @17/20 with Hollywoodbets. 1 Unit Total Points Unders at 56.5 @17/20 with Hollywoodbets.
Exeter v Worcester – Round 4
Exeter managed to free the albatross off their neck last week, this after a red card awarded to Sale enabled the Chiefs to take control of the match in the second half, going onto to win 15-25. Now back in front of their home crowd they should go on from here. Most of their star players should be starting and, as a result, they are strong favourites to make it 2 wins on the trot.
After a good start to the season the Warriors were surprisingly thumped last week by Gloucester. After falling behind early they came within 3 points of the Cherry and Whites early in the second half, but then conceded two tries in quick succession and their fate was sealed. Whether they have improved as much as I had thought remains to be seen.
Betting Angle – Round 4
The Warriors have been beaten by 31 and 52 points in their last two matches at Sandy Park but if they have improved, and the jury is still out on that one, they may well stay within the 16 points start they’re being given here. However, if they haven’t it could well be a very long afternoon for them, in what are expected to be good playing conditions.
Patchy’s Picks: There are just too many uncertainties in this one for me and will be looking at possible overs on the Exeter points with the quote still to be confirmed. I’m expecting around 38.5 -39.5pts for a 3.5 unit outlay.
Gloucester v Sale – Round 4
The Cherry and White’s got their first win of the season last weekend when upstaging the Worcester Warriors at Sixways. It was an impressive performance which was not overly surprising but good to see them more consistent throughout the full 80 min. Taking the lead early they never relinquished it with Adam Hastings having a superb game at 10. Despite the Warriors starting the second half well, Billy Searle was yellow carded for the home side allowing Gloucester to score two converted tries in his absence, putting the match result to bed.
Sale having started the season with a narrow win over Bath and a lucky draw against London Irish had an angry Exeter to deal with at the AJ Bell. Starting well and without AJ McGinty they built up a 10-0 lead, but Exeter managed to tie it up at 10-10 at the break.
Then 15 min into the second period a nasty tackle resulting in a red card for Sale’s Rohan Janse van Rensburg opened the gate for Exeter, who went on strongly to win the game 15-25 and deny Sale a losing bonus point.
Betting Angle – Round 4
There has been a flood of money for Gloucester throughout the week. Starting at 6/5 in most places they are now as short as 11/20 to win the match. Rightly so, as Sale look somewhat shaky and are missing a number of important players. I don’t tend to get involved once I’ve missed the price, kind of like the old saying, “missed the wedding but arrived for the funeral”, but I still feel the cap is worth a small interest. Gloucester looked good value last week and back at home should manage to keep us in the money here.
Patchy’s Picks: 2 Units Gloucester minus 3.5pts @ 17/20 with Hollywoodbets.
London Irish v Leicester – Round 4
Apologies in advance for sounding like a stuck record but can Irish please sort out their starts and inadequate defence. I know I give them a hard time but they’re a team I have a connection with, having played at the club in 1994/95. In all three games so far this season, they have started so poorly leaking tries at will and have therefore had to play “catch up” for the remainder of their matches. They were unlucky to lose against Sale and had the game in the bag against Saints last week before letting it slip, so the potential for huge improvement is there.
They now host a very strong Leicester side who I feel are close to their former glorious days and are 3/3 this season. An incredible finish to last week’s match against Saracens was highlighted by a penalty after the final whistle resulting in a penalty try being awarded after the Leicester maul was pulled down illegally close to the line.
Betting Angle – Round 4
I’m torn in this one. If the Exiles can front up from the get-go, they’ll have a bright opportunity to pick up their first win of the season. Conditions are fine and their attack should be able to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
However, the cap of only 3.5 points does not fill me with value from the evidence presented so far. Leicester appear to be a decent side and if given a head start will be difficult to peg back. This has me scratching my head and it may come as some surprise but feel Irish will be up for this match. They have a decent home record (though not the Community centre) against the Tigers, and I’ll be on the Irish handicap and outright win.
Patchy’s Picks: Going with 2.0 units London Irish outright @13/10 and 3.0 Units on plus 3.5 @17/20 with Hollywoodbets.
Saracens v Newcastle – Round 4
Sarries have started the season well and were denied a second victory from two starts when a late penalty last weekend resulted in them conceding a penalty try away to Leicester. They have their first start at home and will relish putting that disappointment behind them and welcoming their fans back to the StoneX Stadium.
Newcastle quickly stuck a pin in Wasps’ bubble last week when they fought back to claim a workmanlike win in a low scoring match. They’re a tough team to breakdown especially at home but in general their away form from last season, is very poor.
Betting Angle – Round 4
Sarries are at home with their fans right behind them, they have a new management set up and with returning players things are looking bright. It’s a no brainer for me this one and is my best bet of the weekend.
Patchy’s Picks: 7 Units, yes, 7 lovely nuggety units on Saracens minus 16.5pts at 16/20. I’m filling me boots. Available at Hollywoodbets.
Wasps v Northampton – Round 4
And lastly Sunday’s match features Wasps at home. They returned to earth with a solid bump when they failed to follow up their spectacular performance against Bristol the week before when failing narrowly to get the better of the Falcons last weekend. Conditions were not ideal, but it did come as a surprise to see how easily the Falcons dealt with their free-flowing attack. They have an extra day to recover and will welcome the return to Coventry and to what is forecast to be good conditions.
The Saints managed a scare to keep their opening sequence to having played 3 and won 3 when a late Dan Bigger penalty reduced London Irish to tears last weekend. A strange game from them in horrid conditions where they appeared to play in patches.
Betting Angle – Round 4
Good conditions are expected Sunday as well and a high scoring match could be on the cards here. No quotes are out but anything over 50.5 total points would have me interested. The visitors have decent record away to Wasps having won 3 of the last 5 matches. I can’t help but feel though that Northampton’s form may be dipping a little and a small interest on Wasps covering the cap is my selection.
Patchy’s Picks: Just the 2 Units Wasps minus 3.5pts @17/20 available at Hollywoodbets. I would also splash 1.5 units on the over total points if the quote is 50-51 points.
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