Bath to push Gloucester and Sale to win away from home are the weekend’s best bets.
Bristol v Leicester – Round 11
Boxing day’s feast of rugby gets underway at Ashton Gate On Sunday with the Bears playing host to the unbeaten Leicester Tigers. The Bears would be the first to admit this season hasn’t quite gone the way it was planned, prior to being awarded the full 5 points in the forfeited Champions Cup tie, they were soundly beaten by Gloucester away and were trounced by Northampton at home. It’s possible the few weeks rest may have proved valuable in terms of recovering and nursing back some injured bodies to the side.
The Tigers were given a scare by a fluent Connacht last week but knuckled down and eventually got on top.
The weather forecast predicts cloudy conditions with a small chance of showers, the ref is Tom Foley.
Patchy’s Pick
The initial betting opened with 9/10 the pair but since then the Tigers have shortened into 8/10. The Bears might be worth a small interest as I feel Leicester are close to losing their unbeaten run. However I’ll rather look at the overs/unders markets as my main play.
I’m expecting approx. 48.5 points being a day game, if in that region then 4 Units on the unders is the play.
Newcastle v Sale – Round 11
The Falcons host a Sale side who have mainly fired on blanks for most of the season, however I feel a beginning of a decent run is starting to take shape. They certainly have the players to mount a serious challenge but need to show more discipline, while also staying focused for the full 80 minutes.
The Falcons started the season well and the break came at the right time for them as they began to show signs of fatigue, however their home form is generally quite good and they can draw confidence from that.
There is a 40% chance of showers around game time and the ref is King Karl Dickson.
Patchy’s Pick
With a little bit of rain expected and despite this pitch being played on a synthetic field I am expecting a low scoring match, the last 4 GP matches between the two have averaged just 35 points to justify that gut feel. Anything below 45.5 points is a solid unders play and with that in mind I also expect Sale to grind out a win, so the other play for me is 4 Units Sale on the match result @ evens.
Saracens v Worcester – Round 11
Saracens will have been eyeing out this fixture as a potential 5-point bonus opportunity. There is little reason to doubt it either and we are looking at a large handicap in this one.
The Warriors have shown some improvement however in their most recent matches in the Premiership, drawing away to Newcastle and beating Wasps at home. They should be playing better than what we have seen so far but they are a side to be very cautious of.
The weather predicts a 50 % of showers at game time, the referee is Christophe Ridley.
Patchy’s Pick
I’m expecting the handicap to be high but with no betting as yet this might mean we could expect a few surprise team selections. Best bet is to await team announcements.
Wasps v London Irish – Round 11
Wasps are looking very vulnerable and will be keen to return some of their previously unavailable squad members to the starting XV. Despite a sensational win over Bristol earlier on in the season, they’ve looked poor and lacking in creativity and defence.
The Exiles on the other hand have done quite well despite playing in snatches and not always for the full 80 minutes. They do, however, seem to be playing more consistently of late and start the game as narrow favourites.
The weather should be fair, just a 30% chance of scattered showers.
Patchy’s Pick
I continue my love/hate relationships with London Irish, but I do feel the bookies have the wrong favourite here and am suggesting a solid punt on Wasps, however I’m waiting to pull the trigger until I see the teams but will still start with a 3-unit play on Wasps plus 2.5 points @17/20.
Bath v Gloucester – Round 11
The Rec is historically a difficult venue for an away side and Bath will be hoping they can claim their first win of the season against the visiting Cherry and Whites. I’m beginning to recognise an improvement, though slow and gradual over the last 3-4 weeks and think they’ll go really close here.
However, Gloucester are no push overs and are one of the form teams at the moment, the recent break in the Premiership might well have come at the wrong time for them and may have an adverse effect on their momentum.
A few showers are expected during the game and Matt Carley has the whistle.
Patchy’s Pick
Bath to beat the handicap and to possibly break their duck! 4 Units Bath plus 5.5 points @ 17/20 and 2 Units on Bath match result @ 2/1.
Harlequins v Northampton – Round 11
Northampton were left with a bloody nose after the visit of Racing 92 a fortnight ago but showed much better resolve a week later against Ulster. The Saints have enjoyed a good season so far and they should give a good account of themselves despite the last two defeats in the Champions Cup.
Quins meanwhile managed a narrow win in France last time out despite the fact that they butchered a number of try scoring opportunities and should have won by more. Last week’s match against Cardiff was easier. Harlequins have won the last 4 out of 5 encounters played at the Stoop.
Conditions are expected to be cloudy but cold and the points machine Wayne Barnes is in charge of the match.
Patchy’s Pick
Despite my feeling that Quins will win this well I am hesitant to go for the minus here. They’ve battled to cover the handicaps so far this season and I feel Northampton can cover this cap comfortably, therefore the plus Northampton 9.5 points @ 17/20 is the confident call for 4 Units.
Have a wonderful Christmas, happy punting and feel free to chat with me on Twitter @BrenHbetsnet.
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