Welcome to our all-new Gallagher Premiership preview blog, this week covering Round 1 as the 2021-22 season gets underway.
We’re aiming to make watching this sensational sport even more rewarding by hopefully making a profit at the same time.
The level of confidence is indicated by using a point-based value system. A variation between 1 and 10 points will be used, with 10 points being maximum and 1 point being the least confident.
Important info to start with, B&I tour players were given a five week no play moratorium by the Scottish Rugby Union while the English Rugby Union was eight weeks. That means the Scottish players should return in Round 2 and the English a further three weeks after that.
Let’s get cracking.
Bristol v Saracens – Round 1
The season gets underway at Ashton Gate on Friday night and features Saracens in their return to the top-flight.
The Bears were the victim to that epic extra time encounter at the end of last season with Harlequins and failed to make the final after finishing top of the round robin stage.
Pat Lam is an excellent coach and, with the core of the players remaining, will be a force to be reckoned with once again. There will be no B&I players in the squad. However they are much less affected than are their visitors.
Sarries managed to dispatch Ealing in their two play-off fixtures despite finishing runners up in the Greene King IPA.
They’ve managed to keep the brunt of their players and a number featured in the recent tour of South Africa including Jamie George, Elliot Daly, Maro Itoje, Owen Farrell and Mako Vunipola. However, they’ll be missing in this fixture due the federations decision to rest these players as well as South African, Vincent Koch.
It’s a tough call to figure out exactly how Sarries will perform this season.
Could having played in a weaker league affect their attitude or tactics or will they be raring to go and do they have enough meat in their squad to cover the start of the season, Autumn and the 6 Nations? Having been Champions on so many occasions, one would lean towards a top 4 finish at least.
We have have priced them up at 15/8 favourites to win the 2021/22 season.. If they finish in the top 4, they will have the pedigree to go on and win the title.
Friday’s weather forecast includes a fair amount of rain from morning to early evening but should have eased by kick off.
The referee for the match is Wayne Barnes.
Betting Angle – Round 1
Bristol have won the last two opening matches played at home, albeit narrowly by four and two points respectively in 2020 and 2019.
Don’t be put off having a decent strike on Bristol. From an opening price of 4/5, the money continues to come as they shorten into 1/3.
The value has diminished but they should win.
Consider including in a double with Worcester to win on Saturday.
The other betting angle goes against the grain a little. Despite Ashton Gate being a synthetic pitch and Wayne Barnes on the whistle (he is a huge over ref), we might have a low scoring affair here. Sarries won’t contribute too much if the Bears build up a lead, further strengthening that view.
The past four meetings at Ashton Gate have produced 28, 44, 39 and 39 points respectively
Patchy’s Pick: For our first strike of the season, have 3 units on the Under 47.5 Total Points at 5/6. Also, put Bristol & Worcester in a double and stake 3 units at just over EVS.
Leicester v Exeter – Round 1
The Tigers had a much improved 2020/21, a shakeup in management and an injection of some new players seems to have done the trick. Their away form still bothers me winning only 3/9 last season, but the improvement was there having lost 10/11 in 2019/20.
Leicester will be without Jasper Wiese away on Bok duty and should be able to field a strong starting XV.
Exeter will arrive without Luke Cowan Dickie, Johnny Hill, Sam Simmonds and Stuart Hogg. They finished runners up to Bristol last season and then were ambushed by Quin’s in a high scoring final.
The weather forecast is fine with the odd few showers and the referee for the match is Ian Tempest.
Betting Angle – Round 1
Exeter arrive in town without a few key players but should have the depth to cover the holes.
The lean is towards a season opener win for the hosts. Leicester will keep it amongst their forwards and have a slight preference with their bench.
Patchy’s Pick: 2.5 units of Leicester plus 1.5 points at 5/6.
Northampton v Gloucester – Round 1
The Saints improved from 8th in 2019/20 to 5th last season. However, they will rue their poor start to the tournament losing their opening 5 matches on the trot. They will be without Dan Bigger and Courtney Lawes for this opener whilst Cherries will miss Chris Harris and Louis Rees Zammit.
Gloucester meanwhile went the other way finishing 11th last season and 7th the one before. The Saints home form was shaky winning 4/9 but the overall trend seems bright.
Gloucester were very disappointing last season to say the least, but they’ll draw strength from 4 months ago when they hammered the Saint’s 7-31 at Franklin’s Gardens.
The weather forecast is fine with perhaps an odd shower, referee for the match is Karl Dickson, in general an unders referee.
Betting Angle – Round 1
This is a tough match with both sides capable of very inconsistent displays so trying to peg something on past results and their starting XV’s is just so unpredictable.
Two unknown sides by all accounts, but Gloucester may represent a bit of value with a 7.5 point head start.
Patchy’s Pick: Gloucester plus 7.5 at 17/20 2 Units.
Worcester v London Irish – Round 1
Both Worcester and London Irish have been steadily strengthening their squads as best they can over the last few seasons with the Warriors signing both Duhan van Der Merwe and Rory Sutherland most recently. London Irish will be looking to become more comfortable in their recent return to London as they continue to share the Brentford Community Stadium with Hollywood Premiership League Sponsored Brentford FC.
The hosts had a poor last season and finished last with immediate concern and red flag regarding the lack of points scored, managing just 326 points with next best Newcastle at 385 points!
The Exiles on the other hand scored 439 points but their free flowing style of play left them vulnerable on defence and they were punished on several occasions conceding 531 although they were only 5th worst in this regard.
Both will look to improve their last season’s statistics, and both will view this as a game as a game they can win.
The good news for these sides is that there is no relegation this season and may not be for the next year either. But for now, these two sides can give the Premiership a right go of things with the dreaded drop no longer a threat for now.
The weather is clear for Saturday and the referee for the match is Craig Maxwell Keys.
Betting Angle – Round 1
Last season the Warriors won a tight 11-10 fixture while the Exiles won the return leg 20-17.
There’s no doubt this will be fought tooth and nail and with the bookies initially agreeing there has been a ton of support for the hosts who have shortened from 5/6 to 3/5 to win the match.
Once again on a synthetic ground, handling should be respectable, and we could expect a high scoring affair. Pick the home side to win the match even though the value appears to have reduced. There is much confidence in the camp and they should have a little too much for the Irish on the day.
Patchy’s Pick: With a tight game expected and a possibility the Warriors may not have improved as much as expected, tighten the reins a little and go with a 3 unit bet on the Warriors on the handicap of minus 2.5pts at 5/7.
(Have also included the double from Bristol at just over EVS)
Sale v Bath – Round 1
The final match on Saturday kicks off in the early evening and features the Sale Sharks who host Bath. Sale were a little disappointing last season but did provide some profits in a few low scoring encounters with in general a strong defence. They’ll be missing a few players away with the Springboks in Australia including Faf de Klerk, Dan du Preez and Lood de Jager. While Tom Curry should be missing too.
Bath should also be without the services of Anthony Watson and Taulupe Faletau.
Sale finished 3rd on the log last season and were beaten by Exeter in another high scoring play for the final.
Bath had an ordinary last season finishing 8th and were plagued by injuries. Having said that they are still able to field a decent side in the opener and I think this match could be close.
The weather is fine with those pesky showers in the vicinity, the match official is Christophe Ridley.
Betting Angle – Round 1
Both sides have named strong sides although the Sale bench is slightly stronger. Sale have a strange knack of making hard work of it when they are favourites and it may therefore be prudent to give Bath a chance to improve and stay within the cap.
Patchy’s Pick: Bath 2.5 units on the handicap plus 6.5 at 17/20 and unders match total points at around 51.5 as no prices yet for beer money 1 unit.
Newcastle v Harlequins – Round 1
The lone fixture for Sunday looks to be a very tough start to the season for the hosts as they welcome last year’s surprise package and ultimate winner of the Premiership. The Quin’s were sensational last season and won many fans with their incredible showing of pace, risk and high scoring affairs. Unsurprisingly Harlequin’s top scored with a huge 703 points but also conceded a large 564.
Newcastle started last season well after being promoted from the Greene King IPA winning 4 out of their first 5 matches including wins over Sale, Bath, Wasps and Gloucester. But then things got a lot tougher, and they were left treading water for much of the remainder of the season winning 5 from 12.
The weather forecast is clear during the game with some showers expected in the evening, Sunday’s fixture will be officiated by
Betting Angle – Round 1
Sadly, the cap has shortened drastically as there was a 9.5 start with the hosts at the start of the week, now shortened into 4.5pts At that handicap the Falcons were a standout bet but at the current market the value has gone. Select the home side to keep this close with a real chance of pulling off a win.
Patchy’s Pick: Take the slightly lessor odds for the extra point, Falcons 3 units plus 5.5 at 5/7- and 1 unit 7/4 outright.
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