Castres are my make or break team for this weekend’s Champions Cup Round 3 matches, whilst there should be wins for Leicester, Ulster, Bristol, Exeter, Clermont, La Rochelle, Bordeaux, Racing and Toulouse.
Cardiff v Harlequins – Champions Cup Round 3
Cardiff were badly beaten in Edinburgh in the URC last weekend and hardly put up any resistance. Their Champions Cup outings have been just as poor, losing 7-39 to Toulouse and 43-17 away to ‘Quins.
‘Quins meanwhile have won both their opening matches in stark contrast and beat Exeter on the weekend in the GP so they’re in devilish form. The Welsh sides appear to be out of sorts at the moment and might best be watched until there is improvement.
Patchy’s Pick
Historically speaking, Cardiff have the edge here with ‘Quins managing just 2 wins in 9 appearances between the two and despite not taking much interest in that stat I feel the home side plus 7.5 points is worth a small flutter; this is based on the visitors who have battled to beat one handicap this season. Just 1 Unit Cardiff plus 7.5 points @ 17/20.
Castres v Munster – Champions Cup Round 3
The hosts have won their last 3 Top 14 matches which has propelled them into a handy third on the Top 14 log. They’ve been narrow losers in their two Champions Cup appearances so far, picking up two losing bonus points and will be confident of pushing a Munster side who have looked a little vulnerable in their last two outings. The recent form between the two doesn’t make for good reading though with Castres winning 1, losing 8 and one draw. Despite one or two key players out for the hosts and this ugly stat, I can’t resistfiring on this one.
Patchy’s Pick
With good weather forecast I still feel going unders in this match will prove worthwhile and will add it in my staking plan when lines are out, but for now Castres plus 11.5 points is worth a meaty 4.5 Units @ 17/20.
Wasps v Toulouse – Champions Cup Round 3
In an exhibition of wonderful defence and heart, Wasps ended Leicester’s incredible run of wins on Sunday afternoon in the Gallagher Premiership, they’ve had a horrid season so far and that win may go a long way in helping them turn their campaign around.
However, they have a tough task as the French dreadnought Toulouse steams into town. The current Champions are a huge force in this tournament and Wasps will have their work cut out to get anything from this match.
Patchy’s Pick
Reflecting on past glories, Wasps have met Toulouse 11 times, it’s 5 a piece on the wins and one draw. However this is a very different home side who still have so many players unavailable. It was a massive effort last week but I think Toulouse will prove too strong particularly at the set pieces. Toulouse minus 8.5 points at 17/20 for 3 Units is the call.
Connacht v Leicester – Champions Cup Round 3
On New Year’s Day, Connacht pulled off a well fought win against Munster in Galway, adding another high-level scalp to their tally. Furthermore, they were only beaten by 6 points in the reverse fixture and could easily turn the tables here back on their own turf.
Leicester arrive in Ireland on the back of their recent first loss of the season on Sunday but are a class outfit and should be able to put that disappointment behind them.
Patchy’s Pick
Connacht have been a much-improved side in recent months, particularly their in terms of their consistency which has been a major concern in recent years. They’re also unbeaten in their last 4 matches at home. Leicester, however, are a finely tuned squad and I expect a committed performance here after last week’s nail-biting loss, I’m not as confident as I’d like to be but I’m still going to suggest 2.5 Units @ 4/5 on the Leicester match result market.
Ospreys v Racing – Champions Cup Round 3
Ospreys put up a dismal display away to Glasgow last Saturday in the URC, but are one of those inconsistent sides where you never really know what you’re going to get. They find themselves currently at the bottom of Group A and I can’t see them putting up much of a fight against Racing 92, however the French side can blow hot and cold at times as can the hosts so it’s a match I would be a little wary of.
Patchy’s Pick
Like the Cardiff match before, this game is only worth a unit at best, with a fair amount of uncertainty on what to expect from both teams I would lean towards Ospreys on the plus 15.5, but for now no bet and best to wait until team selections are finalised.
Exeter v Glasgow – Champions Cup Round 3
I would expect the Chiefs to have a determined welcoming party waiting for the Scots after they were humiliated 22-7 in the reverse fixture. It was one of those days the hosts would prefer to forget and I fully expect Exeter to be at the top of their game for this one.
Glasgow, to be fair, have improved this season and if conditions are good could quite well make a game of this with their pacy backs.
Patchy’s Pick
With the weather forecast good, I expect Glasgow will look to throw the ball around if they can. The handicap looks well set though and one could make a case for both sides of the market. With a little more thought I feel Exeter may want to stamp their authority in this one and suggest they’ll cover the cap. 2.5 Units , Exeter minus 10.5 @ 17/20.
La Rochelle v Bath – Champions Cup Round 3
My favourite French side didn’t manage to cover their 11-point handicap when grinding out a narrow win against Glasgow back in early December. However, they’ll be lining this encounter up as a winning bonus point opportunity.
Their opponents finally managed to pick up a first win of the season on Sunday but made very hard work of it against a Worcester side reduced to 14 for most of the match. If Conditions are good I expect the French side to win well here.
Patchy’s Pick
With the latest forecast indicating no rain and Bath likely to send a weak side, La Rochelle should run up pretty big of score. The bookies have a handicap of 31 points and I can’t see any value either side of that line so for now it’s a no bet.
Bristol v Stade Francais – Champions Cup Round 3
Bristol proved too good for Sale in their last appearance but this will be their first taste of Champions Cup rugby after being awarded a 5-point default win against Scarlets. They should manage to put away Stade Francais quite easily in view of the French side’s weak away form and their focus on survival in the Top 14 as seen as a priority.
Patchy’s Pick
The handicap currently is set around 20 points , I wouldn’t go for Stade but if Bristol announce a strong squad, and I feel they will, then they should be good enough to cover it, for an interest 2 units Bristol minus 19.5 points @ 17/20.
Leinster v Montpellier – Champions Cup Round 3
Four-time Champions Leinster should have a way too much firepower for Montpellier who were very poor against Exeter in Round 1. They since received a 5-point default win against today’s opponents which leaves them in the hunt but I can’t imagine them taking this match too seriously.
Patchy’s Pick
Again there is a large handicap expected due to the uncertainty around the French side’s commitment or intent in the competition. In general I like Montpellier as a side but if they send another weak side the handicap won’t be enough. It’s a no bet for me at the moment as there is no mention of Montpellier’s squad as yet.
Bordeaux v Scarlets – Champions Cup Round 3
The hosts were beaten 13-16 in their only match so far by Leicester in December, they’ll want to put things right here and have a great opportunity to do just that.
Scarlets have played one match since the late October and despite an encouraging win against Ospreys on New Year’s Day this will prove an immense challenge.
Patchy’s Pick
The handicap looks well priced for now and I’d be tempted to give Scarlets a shout at staying inside 15-points,mainly due the potential freshness of their squad at present.
Northampton v Ulster – Champions Cup Round 3
Just as you think the Saints are on a downward trajectory they manage to bounce back and did so in emphatic fashion away to Newcastle on Saturday. They only lost by 5 points in the reverse fixture in mid-December but I’m not convinced enough to prefer them here. Ulster lost a match they should have won last week and they are a much better side this season, especially on the road. The manner in which they dispatched Clermont in Round 1 was most impressive and if they manage to play in similar fashion, they should win this.
Patchy’s Pick
I thought I would see the hosts priced up as slight favourites and was wrong, instead Ulster are marginally preferred by the bookies. I don’t think there is any value therefore at the current odds, though I do think Ulster will do the business.
Clermont v Sale – Champions Cup Round 3
My second favourite French side Clermont were most disappointing against Ulster when losing at home despite missing a number of key players on that day. They have a potentially tricky assignment here as they play the Sale Sharks who once again allowed poor discipline to contribute to their loss at Bristol.
As I’ve mentioned Sale have the squad, but too many penalties and a common knack of butchering try scoring opportunities has got me scratching my head. It’s a game I expect Clermont to win well though and Sale perhaps concentrating on climbing the table into a potential playoff position in the Gallagher Premiership instead.
Patchy’s Pick
I was going to leave this game alone but as I see the handicap in single digits, it’s forced me to decide Clermont should be backed. Therefore Clermont minus 9.5 for a strong 3 Units is the call @ 17/20.
Suggested weekend accumulator: Castres plus 5.5 pts, Leicester outright, Toulouse minus 8.5 pts, Ulster Outright works out 10/1.
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