My favourite tournament gets underway this weekend and I’m hoping this Northampton side can continue their impressive form in England and pinch a narrow win in the opener on Friday night. Prices are going faster than a toupee in a hurricane.
Northampton v Racing 92 – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
Northampton are riding high at the moment and come off an excellent win over Bath, they host the French side Racing from Paris.
In 4 previous meetings , Racing have won 3 and there has been one draw. The game is played at Franklin Garden’s and the weather is forecast is cold but no rain expected. Racing have the pedigree but the Saints have the confidence.
Patchy’s Pick: With no form to really work on it’s wise to start off slowly, so for now 1.5 units on the Saints match winner market at 10/11, if it’s a draw your stake is returned in this market.
Cardiff v Stade Toulousain – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
Current and 5 times European Champions Toulouse are the visitors in Cardiff on Saturday afternoon. Surprisingly they have a mixed bags of results against the hosts with the most recent two played in 2017 and 2018 both going the way of the Welsh side.
A 50% chance of showers are forecast.
Patchy’s Pick: Cardiff can be very inconsistent but have shown that they can front up to this mammoth task from past results.
Bordeaux v Leicester – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
The log leaders in the Top 14 face off against the Gallagher Premiership table toppers. This should be a great match and probably the pick of the weekend. These two sides have not played one another in recent times.
Weather looks fine and no difficulties expected.
Patchy’s Pick: This is not an easy match to read, their styles are quite similar and much will depend on the referees’ interpretations and a whole lot of luck.
Leicester have had a poor recent history in this tournament but with their huge improvement this season in the Gallagher Premiership I’m leaning on the Tigers to run this very close so 2 units on the handicap plus 4.5 points @ 17/20.
Leinster v Bath – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
The Irish juggernaut and 4-time Champions won’t be shaking in their boots at the prospect of facing Gallagher Premiership cellar dwellers Bath in their opener.
It’s hard to find any value at this stage but one bet that has served me well in the past has been Leinster points, so that’s a thought. Complacency however may be the home side’s biggest challenge and with Bath showing slight improvement recently I’m confident they pick up at least 12 points and make the handicap achievable.
Patchy’s Pick: Leinster are always a class act but I’m banking on Bath tearing up the form book and showing a little back bone in what is a huge handicap. Look to take the handicap of plus 32.5 points Bath @17/20 for 2 Units.
Clermont v Ulster – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
Currently lying only 6th in the Top 14, the former Champions haven’t quite hit their straps, however this competition is their bread and butter and Ulster, despite playing well of late, will be under pressure playing away from home. In their two most recent meetings in 2020 and 2019 , the wins were shared one a piece at home which is quite surprising.
Player to watch is new signing Duane Vermeulen though it’s unlikely he’ll start for this match.
Conditions should be fine for handling and running rugby.
Patchy’s Pick: Again, a possible tricky encounter with both sides susceptible to moments of distraction. Clermont, brilliant when they want to be, Ulster much improved and attack orientated.
However after much thought I feel the handicap is potentially a point or two on the shy side and will recommend Clermont minus 6.5 points on the handicap for 2.5 units at 17/20.
Exeter v Montpellier – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
Exeter have found good form at the right time particularly their fine win over Saracens most recently and entertain a French side that can blow very hot and cold in this competition particularly on their travels.
It’s an evening game which could lean one towards looking at an under’s play should the quote be in the late 40’s to early 50’s.
Patchy’s Pick: A rather large handicap despite Montpellier not being the greatest on the road, they’re an improved side though and I feel this handicap is a little too high after drifting out to a higher level, no doubt due expected team announcements, so by no means confident just 1.5 Units on the visitors with a plus 18.5-point handicap at 17/20.
Connacht v Stade Francais – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
The hosts have improved this season and are always a bit tougher to beat when in Galway. However they can be plagued with inconsistent performances. Stade Francais are 10th in the Top 14 and come off a win against La Rochelle on Sunday night.
This could well be a scrappy affair and with the wind expected to be howling it’ll be of interest who has the wind at their backs for any first half plays.
Patchy’s Pick: This cries no bet and will watch from a far distance.
Ospreys v Sale – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
The hosts had a welcome win over Ulster last weekend and this game should be competitive. Sale haven’t been at their best in England but I feel a few good wins are not far off the horizon. Conditions look at this stage to be fine.
Patchy’s Pick: Sale haven’t done as well as they should have with the squad they have; a lot comes down to coaching though and I do feel they’ll be up for this one, have something to prove and can escape Wales with a hard-fought win. Sale minus 3.5 points on the handicap but just for 1.5 Units at 10/11.
La Rochelle v Glasgow – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
La Rochelle are one of my favourite French sides and were a little unlucky against Stade last Sunday night, they host Glasgow who easily dispatched the Dragons in their last outing. These two met in 2019 with one win a piece and unusually both wins went to the away side.
The weather looks good.
Patchy’s Pick: Past form has clouded my judgement a little in this one but I still feel I need to nail my colours to the mast, the cap is slightly bigger than I would have hoped, so just 2 Units on the hosts handicap minus 14.5 points @17/20.
Wasps v Munster – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
Wasps played poorly on the weekend and have had a poor season so far. They are still battling a few injuries.
Munster arrive having not played for over a month. With some URC fixtures postponed it’s hardly an ideal preparation for the Irishmen. The weather should be mild with no rain expected.
Patchy’s Pick: Despite a number of Munster players unavailable due to quarantine rules and the like after returning from South Africa, it still comes as a small surprise to see Wasps a 6-point favourite. I’d say a waiting game is the call here until team announcements have been made at noon on Friday.
Castres v Harlequins – Champions Cup Round 1
Betting Angle
And finally the last game features Castres, currently mid table in France and Quins who lost narrowly against Leicester on Sunday afternoon. The hosts had an impressive win over Racing prior to this game and will start as narrow favourites possibly. The weather is predicated to be good.
Patchy’s Pick: A tricky match this and the bookies now make it a 40/60 game after earlier pricing up 10/11 the pair, I’m not sure I agreed with that earlier assumption and I’m expecting Quins to win this one with some room to spare. So the advised route is 3 Units @ 7/10 Quins, on a price that keeps shortening, market match winner which excludes the draw.
Follow me on Twitter @BrenHBetsnet for all my tips.
Bet on Rugby at www.hollywoodbets.co.uk or www.hollywoodbets.ie
