Ireland v Wales – 2022 Six Nations Round 1
The 2022 Six Nations gets underway in Dublin on Saturday afternoon.
Wales, the current champions, were narrowly beaten in Paris last March after they looked likely to complete a clean sweep and claim the Grand Slam, but it was not to be, as France won a thriller 32-30.
Ireland though will start the game as strong favourites despite this fact and at first glance the bookies are probably right. The reason for the strong favouritism is not necessarily down to the national side’s average form since then, but more to do with a huge list of unavailable players that Wayne Pivac has to do without. And then, who can forget the freak manner in which Wales won their games against Ireland, Scotland and England.
History also indicates Wales will struggle in this fixture with their last win being in 2015 and their biggest defeat in recent times being in November 2020 where they lost 32-9 in the Autumn International fixtures.
With Ireland expected to be at full strength for the match, I can see them targeting the Welsh pack minus a few key players.
One would also expect Wales to get progressively worse as the tournament wears on with further injuries outnumbering the chances of returning players. However, as we have seen in last season’s tournament a bit of luck can go a long way and any yelloe/red cards could potentially turn form books upside down.
The weather for the match is forecast as partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain, the match official in charge is XXXX
Patchy’s Pick
I’m confident with Wales here though as I feel they’ll have their best starting XV for this match and will deteriorate after this match and, the 14.5 just sounds a little too much and it’s a solid 4 units on Wales plus 14.5 points.
Scotland v England – 2022 Six Nations Round 1
Scotland will welcome England to Edinburgh and will feel confident of beating England for two seasons in a row after winning at Twickenham in 2021 by a narrow 11 points to 6. They will not be without hope either, of accomplishing this feat, as their last 5 meetings reveal.
Scotland were beaten 6-13 in 2020, drew that fabulous 38 points-all try fest in 2019 and beat England 25-13 in 2018.
Having enjoyed a successful international series at the end of 2021, England start the match as favourites but also include a few inexperienced players in their starting 15 to make the game a little more in the balance.
The bookies agree with Scotland reflecting in percentage terms a 40% chance of winning the game.
The latest weather indicates a 60% chance of light rain throughout the day.
Patchy’s Pick
For a start I’m expecting a low scoring match, the last 8 meetings at Murrayfield have yielded an average of just 25.5 points, so anything in the region of 40.5 which looks likely is pretty much a banker bet.
The handicap is a little closer than I would have thought and for now I’m undecided whether I have a few units on Scotland on the best plus.
France v Italy – 2022 Six Nations Round 1
The form team in the Northern Hemisphere right now has to be France. Finally consistency in players and selections has resulted in a formidable French side which is more dependable and mentally resolute.
France also host the World Cup next year and are currently second favourites to lift that Cup and many a shrewd pundit mark them as the real team to beat.
On the other hand the Azzuri just don’t seem able to make any progress. Admittedly, they are in a difficult situation and financially are always at a huge disadvantage compared to the other five Nations, but even their ability to compete in this tournament is forever under review due their poor results. Their last win came against Scotland in 2015 and it’s long odds on they’ll be winless again in this year’s tournament.
As a result, a large handicap has been set and though I don’t feel Italy will worry the hosts in any manner, there may be some value in looking at Italy on a few betting markets.
It’s no secret that Italy have at least shown that they can keep up with the pace in the first 40 minutes, it’s the second 40 that things begin to unravel at an alarming rate. And with a large handicap, there is good justification to expect Italy will remain within that 1st half handicap. The other play I like is Italian points.
In the last five Six Nations fixtures played in France, Italy have scored an average of 16.5 points, so in effect any quote of 12 or 13 Italian points for this game needs to be looked at seriously.
Conditions are expected to be cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.
Patchy’s Pick
Italy HT plus 16.5 points for 2.5 Units and 2 units on Italy over 9.5 points.
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