The PGA Tour heads home to the Champions Course at PGA National this week for the 2023 Honda Classic. Damien Kayat shares his preview, value bets and best bets.
2022/2023 US PGA Tour
Honda Classic
PGA National (Champions Course), Florida, USA
23-26 February
We have now had a different World No.1 in each of the last three weeks. This seesaw battle for golfing supremacy- coupled with the return to action of Tiger Woods- mark this as one of the most exciting periods in golf’s recent history.
Jon Rahm underlined his status as the world’s leading golfer with a gritty display at Riviera. Max Homa- my pick to win last week- lost his way on the back nine and the Spaniard needed no second invitation.
It was Rahm’s fifth win in his last nine worldwide starts, sending an ominous warning to all his would-be challengers.
The Honda Classic
The PGA Tour switches from the West Coast to the East for the first leg of this year’s Florida Swing. First held in 1972 as the Inverrary Classic, this event has been sponsored by Honda since 1982 (more on that later).
Many of golf’s greats have tasted success in this event, with Jack Nicklaus claiming both the 1977 and 1978 titles.
Champions Course at PGA National
Designed by Tom and George Fazio, the Champions Course opened for business in 1981. This parkland course is one of the most well-regarded courses on the tour (hosting the 1983 Ryder Cup and the 1987 PGA Championship).
This strategic test requires accurate approach play and excellent scrambling. The plentiful water hazards and fiendish bunkering make this one of the tour’s toughest non-Major tests.
In fact, only five players have gone double-digits under par since 2007 (including last year’s winner Sepp Straka). The fast Tifeagle Bermuda greens also require a soft touch.
Holes 15-17, known affectionately as the ‘Bear Trap’, have ruined many a Sunday dream over the years. This is a course that will not be bullied and will test all facets of the player’s arsenal.
While it is not a links course, PGA National is an exposed and wind-affected venue. Solid links proponents can prosper here.
The Contenders
The Honda Classic used to attract an excellent field. But this will be the second consecutive year where the field is somewhat uninspired, struggling to attract top talent in the aftermath of a stellar battle at Riviera.
The diminishing popularity of the event has resulted in Honda’s decision to cut ties following this year’s renewal. You could argue that this field is actually the weakest in many years.
Sungjae Im is trading at 8/1 to win this week! Im is a former champion who has turned into a perennial presence on PGA leaderboards. Shane Lowry looked strong at Riviera and comes in 2nd in the markets.
Matt Kuchar flirted with contention last week and comes in at 22/1. Min Woo Lee is an exciting Aussie prospect who shouldn’t be underestimated in this field.
Past Winners
2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
2021: Matt Jones (-12)
2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
2018: Justin Thomas (-8) *playoff
To Win Outright:
Sungjae Im 8/1 | Shane Lowry 14/1 | Matt Kuchar 22/1 | Min Woo Lee 22/1 | Denny McCarthy 25/1
Value Bets
Adam Svensson- To Win 40/1 | To Place 88/10
Canadian Adam Svensson is fresh off a top 10 in last week’s elevated field and looks primed for a real title tilt this week. Like fellow Canadian Mackenzie Hughes, Svensson has the type of accuracy-based game that could thrive at PGA National. The 29-year-old went to University in Florida and he lives in Palm Beach Gardens. He will know this course like the back of his hand. He won the 2015 Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School event held here in 2015. He was excellent on debut last year, opening with rounds of 65 and 69. He faded to finish in ninth place. He won his maiden PGA Tour title at last year’s RSM Classic (another course that rewards his trademark accuracy). 40/1 looks a top price for Svensson.
Danny Willett- To Win 70/1 | To Place 15/1
2016 Masters champ Danny Willett could be a factor this week. He obviously needed some time to get over the horrendous putting disaster that cost him last year’s Fortinet Championship. And he has shown some signs of his best golf of late. He ended his Pebble Beach stint with a 69 before a solid top 20 at last week’s Genesis Invitational. He opened here last season with a 67. He has shown a penchant for winning on elite courses, picking up victories at Augusta, Wentworth and St Andrews. His history at Wentworth is especially encouraging. That is an event that certainly puts a premium on accuracy and course management. I really think he is a real dark horse at 70/1.
The Man to beat- Billy Horschel- To Win 28/1 | To Place 6/1
Billy Horschel is a proven winner on tour who just happens to be going through something of a dry patch. The former FedEx Cup champion has form figures of T30-MC-T32-MC. He probably had this earmarked as one to skip at the start of his itinerary. But the hard-working Horschel is hell-bent on making some improvements before we get into some of the upcoming behemoths. The Florida native has picked up some of his best results in his home state. And he has played here ten previous times; compiling four finishes of 16th or better. He is a real grinder who could thrive in this poor field.
