Damien Kayat Previews Caroline Garcia vs Tatjana Maria and Elena Rybakina vs Beatriz Haddad Maia in the Round of 32 matches of the Stuttgart Open, on 20th April 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Stuttgart Open
Porsche-Arena (Indoor Clay-Court)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 20th April
Caroline Garcia 24/100 | Tatjana Maria 13/5
This has turned into a really surreal season for 4th seed Caroline Garcia. Her 2022 campaign was one of the fairytale success stories of the year. She won in Cincinnati, reached the semi-finals of the US Open and would ultimately capture the WTA Finals title.
But things have been slightly underwhelming for the Frenchwoman this year. Sure, she reached finals in Monterrey and Lyon. But she was the firm favorite in both of those events. She has only gone beyond the quarterfinal stage in WTA 250 events this season.
She suffered a shock first-round defeat to Cirstea at the Miami Open. Sure, she did pick up two Billie Jean King wins against Harriet Dart and Katie Boulter. But she needed three sets against two players ranked outside 100 in the world.
She has committed a staggering 79 unforced errors in her last two matches and needs to rein that in if she stands any chance of going deep in this event.
35-year-old German journeywoman Tatjana Maria has now won six consecutive matches on clay. She defended her Bogota title last week and just prevailed in a marathon three-set match against In-Albon.
To be fair, none of those matches were against a player ranked inside the top 70 in the world. This match against Caroline Garcia is going to be a massive challenge. But Maria is the type of doughty clay-courter who could frustrate the ultra-aggressive Garcia.
Maria just has to keep the ball in play and Garcia could just self-destruct. But will the German have anything in the tank following the Bogota win and a herculean opening match.
Verdict: Garcia to win in three at 5/2
Garcia leads the head-to-head 2-0. But the last time they met was way back in 2015. Garcia obviously has the tools to demolish Maria. But I think there’s some value in backing the German to nick a set. Garcia is in middling form and is spraying unforced errors everywhere.
Elena Rybakina 3/10 | Beatriz Haddad Maia 11/5
Current World No.7 is on an absolute tear at the minute. Kazakh star Elena Rybakina is one of the ‘it’ girls of tennis who flies completely under the radar. I don’t understand it.
The reigning Wimbledon champion proved that was no fluke by reaching her 2nd Grand Slam final in Melbourne earlier this year (losing in three sets to Sabalenka). Her game dropped off somewhat in the direct aftermath of that but she bounced back in incredible fashion at the fabled ‘Sunshine Double’.
She reached her first two WTA 1000 finals in an incredible back-to-back stretch of high-octane, aggressive tennis. She won the title at Indian Wells and fell to Kvitova in the Miami final. She just battled past Julie Nienamer to win her first clay-court match of the season.
But make no mistake: this section of the year is bound to be her toughest. Only two of her 13 WTA finals have come on clay (the last of which coming back in 2020). She won’t get the same purchase on her serve here and will have less opportunities for one-two punch rallies.
This has been a bit of a frustrating year for comeback kid Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Brazilian lefty looked a great prospect back in 2017- well established in the top 100 and only looking up.
But a litany of injuries and a doping suspension saw her plummet significantly down the rankings. But she has worked her way back up over the last few years, bursting into the top 15 after a wildly successful 2022 campaign.
She really came to life on the grass-courts, with that imposing serve taking her to titles at Nottingham and Birmingham. It really was the catalyst for Haddad Maia to start adopting a far more aggressive approach. Her best result of the season was an epic run to the final of the Canadian Open.
She started the year in decent nick, picking up a semi-final in Abu Dhabi and quarterfinal showings in Adelaide and Qatar. But she wasn’t able to able to win two consecutive matches in her next three events. She reached this stage after Martina Treviasan withdrew in the 2nd set of their opening match.
She has similar issues to Rybakina. Her penetrating serve doesn’t get quite the same kick here and her movement is slightly more labored on this surface.
Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 17/20
Haddad Maia actually has the head-to-head advantage over Rybakina, beating her in three sets at this year’s Abu Dhabi Open. I just don’t see her replicating that form on this surface. Rybakina has more brute power and should be able to dictate the tempo of the points. She fired nine aces against Niemaner and 32 winners overall. She should have too much here.
