There are few betting events like the Kentucky Derby, and that was none more evident than in 2022 when Rich Strike became the second-biggest long shot to win the opening leg of the Triple Crown.
The success of the 81/1 outsider will give all runners lining up at Churchill Downs this year confidence that they could follow in the same footsteps.
However, it is often difficult to pinpoint an outsider with a very realistic chance of landing Kentucky Derby glory.
But who are some of the selections at bigger prices that could cause upsets at Churchill Downs in 2023?
Two Phil’s
According to the Kentucky Derby odds by TwinSpires.com, it could be argued that Two Phil’s has been one of the runners that has progressed more so than any other contender throughout the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The three-year-old hit a career-best figure of 103 when landing the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather at Tampa Bay in March, and he already has winning graded experience on the dirt.
After finishing close behind Instant Coffee and Angel of Empire, he finally got a well-deserved win at Tampa.
He has already accumulated enough Derby points to line-up in the race after landing Grade 3 victory in the Street Sense in October.
While he is a massive outsider to claim victory, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see him finish in the top three.
Lord Miles
Lord Miles is a similar price to Two Phil’s in the betting and there has already been enough from his performances this year to suggest that he is still progressing.
The runner picked up his biggest career success to date after being stepped up to 1 1/8 miles in the G2 Wood Memorial, as he finished clear of Hit Show to record a career-best rating.
That was an excellent run after finishing outside the first three in both the Tampa Bay Derby and G3 Holy Bull.
He appeared to be crying out for a longer distance, and he sped up quickly to land that decisive win at Aqueduct in early April.
His place in the Derby field is now assured, but Lord Miles will likely be relying on a favorable draw to stand any chance of landing a shock win at Churchill Downs.
King Russell
One runner that is arguably way overpriced in the current betting is King Russell.
The contender for Ron Moquett is another that has progressed very quickly after being stepped up into graded company, and he could have the late speed to play a key role in the finish at Churchill Downs.
The three-year-old finished a very solid second to Angel of Empire in the G1 Arkansas Derby in early April, recording a career-best speed rating of 91.
That was only his first effort in the graded company after being an extremely unlucky loser behind Talladega in a maiden special weight in January. He finally registered a first win in his maiden company on the same track, scoring a rating of 85.
Over his previous three starts, he is hitting speed figures of between 85 and 91.
There is certainly an impression that he could continue to improve over a greater distance and against much better runners. At a huge price, he could be a top-three contender for the Kentucky Derby this year.
Who’s the horse to beat?
There’s little doubt that Forte remains the talented runner in the Derby field this year, and some bookies are already offering a price on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner landing the Triple Crown this year.
His two runs this year have highlighted the sheer advantage that he has over many leading rivals this year, with his off-the-pace win in the G1 Florida Derby over Mage being the best performance that we have seen from a Derby contender this year.
