Horse racing pundit Andy Gibson breaks downs the performances of Shiskin, Ahoy Senor and co whilst exploring what led to such an exciting finish in the Aintree Bowl Chase.
SHISHKIN
The post-race talk from the pundits was fascinating to listen to. Of course, this was a very exciting race, and the finish was particularly thrilling to watch.
Moreover, Shishkin added plenty to that excitement the way he made up plenty of ground on the eventual runner-up on the approach to the final fence.
The strength of his finish was reminiscent of the way Noble Yeats made up ground on the same front runner in the Many Clouds Chase over course and distance in December.
The other variable Noble Yeats and Shishkin have in common is the way they were both badly outpaced immediately after the second last fence. The former is a staying chaser who subsequently struggled to lie up with the pace in the Gold Cup and the Grand National before making up plenty of ground on the leaders on both occasions.
Conversely, Shishkin is a former Arkle winner plus a recent Betfair Ascot Chase winner. Did Ahoy Senor burn himself out by simply going too fast from two out to the final fence? I thought this part of the race was worth exploring further.
On the first circuit, Ahoy Senor took around 22.14 seconds to race from the second-last fence to the final fence.
On the final circuit, when he initially began to draw clear of the outpaced Shishkin, the eventual runner-up in the Aintree Bowl Chase ran a slightly slower time over that same distance of ground.
When comparing Ahoy Senor from his fourth fence and the first fence for Banbridge, the Manifesto Chase winner was well over two seconds slower with a circuit to go and still more than two seconds behind Ahoy Senor when jumping three out.
From three out to two out, Banbridge was just under a second quicker than the pair and from two out to the final fence, Banbridge was approximately two seconds quicker than Ahoy Senor, despite Shishkin being outpaced immediately after two out.
These types of comparisons may add up for a relatively slow boat like Noble Yeats but not for a recent two-mile specialist like Shishkin.
I want to remember the way Shishkin knuckled down and fought hard to make up the ground on Ahoy Senor before winning a shade cosily at the line.
At the same time, I do not want to forget the way he was quickly left behind by a grinding stayer soon after the second last fence. This may well be a sign of things to come.
Given the excitement of the pundits and the likely market response to that reaction, the upside to having him on side will probably be far outweighed by considering opposing him, if and when he is trading extremely short.
I strongly suspect that there was a lot more going on between the ears for Shishkin at various points through the race and particularly from the second last fence. Nicky Henderson holds a few similar reservations given the content of his post-race interviews.
AHOY SENOR
It was another good performance at Aintree in April which is something to remember next year. When he was beaten by Noble Yeats at Aintree in December, I thought he might be a bit better than he looked on that occasion.
The pundits appear to agree that this second-place finish was a career-best effort; however, that statement would depend on how good and reliable Shishkin proves to be in the future over this sort of trip.
It is also dependent on how close we believe A Plus Tard performed to his best and my thoughts on that would be ‘not very’.
Ahoy Senor continues to be rated as a strong Gold Cup contender and many pundits felt he might have finished thereabouts in the Gold Cup.
I would suggest that he has proven to be a solid and reliable yardstick in recent times.
He proved to be just too good for Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats in the Cotswold Chase in January and if he had reproduced the quality of that form while standing up in the Gold Cup he would probably have finished fourth at best.
Sounds Russian was only just behind him in the Many Clouds Chase also and Noble Yeats finished two places in front of him on that occasion. On balance, the profile of Ahoy Senor suggests he is a very good staying chaser and, at the same time, a little way behind the top three or four in that division.
I may change my mind in time; however, this will be my starting point next season.
A PLUS TARD
I thought he was given another quiet and considerate ride after being ridden similarly in the Gold Cup last month.
His connections feel he is on his way back and that could well be the case. For now, however, I would prefer to take his well-beaten third-place finish literally until he shows something to the contrary.
Of course, I may change my mind if the Punchestown Gold Cup market overstates his possible deterioration more than I would.
CONFLATED
Some horses improve for having run at the Cheltenham Festival before coming here and some regress. I am happy to draw a line through this performance and just consider it as being a case of one race too many.
GA LAW
He placed fifth and that’s all the run deserved, as he never played a part in the race. He made a couple of serious mistakes along the way which did not help his cause before being pulled up early in the home straight
