Damien Kayat previews the 151st edition of The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
It’s that glorious time of the year again, when US PGA Tour players publicly extol the virtues of links golf while secretly yearning to be back in Texas or Florida. But in all seriousness, this year marks the 151st staging of arguably the world’s most iconic golfing event: the Open Championship. Last week’s Scottish Open at Renaissance gave us a wonderful aperitif ahead of this year’s final Major. Hometown hero and prospective Ryder Cup candidate Robert Macintyre played one of the best rounds of golf you will see in blustery conditions on Sunday, shooting a final round 64 to put him on the cusp of capturing the biggest title of his career.
But Rory McIlroy put a slew of recent near-misses behind him to produce some scintillating golf over the final few holes, helping him secure his 24th US PGA Tour title and install him as the outright favourite to conquer Royal Liverpool this week (where he happened to win this grand old event in 2014).
The decision made four years ago to change this event to the final major championship of the season was probably the wisest decision made by the PGA Tour in recent memory. It elevated the status of the US PGA Championship from something of an afterthought and it gave this historic event an added feeling of finality (this is now the last chance of the year that these players have of capturing major championship glory).
Organized by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (the R&A), The Open Championship is the only major to be played outside of the USA. Willie Park won the inaugural event in 1860 and this will be the 151st staging of the event. The event is always staged on a links layout and this year the event returns to Royal Liverpool for the first time in nine years.
Royal Liverpool- or Hoylake as it is colloquially known- was founded in 1869 and is the 2nd oldest seaside links in England (behind Royal North Devon). This will be the 13th time that Royal Liverpool has hosted the Open and it has seen some notable champions. Bobby Jones won here as an amateur while Tiger Woods memorably finessed his way around Hoylake in 2005. He amazingly only took driver out once that year, choosing to mitigate the penal rough and trust his magnificent iron-play. Rory McIlroy won the title in 2014, hitting the ball further than anyone in the field. So, there appear to be multiple ways to skin this particular cat. Having said all that, there have been some notable changes made to Hoylake this year.
Crucially, the par four 10th played as a par five back in 2014. It will go from the easiest hole in the competition to almost certainly the hardest. In fact, general lengthening of the course means that this year’s back-nine will be the longest in the history of the championships. There is also a brand-new hole to bask in. The new par three 17th– affectionately known as ‘Little Eye’- will undoubtedly become the signature hole of this great old course. It is a short par three with sheer runoff areas that will capture anything remotely short. The infinity green makes it one of the most breathtaking par 3’s in all of links golf.
So, would I favour the Tiger or Rory approach this year? I think golf has changed a lot since Tiger’s victory in 2005. There are now many players who are able to regularly hit the ball 300 yards. I think I would lean slightly more towards the bombers this year (especially with the lengthening of the course). That’s not to say that the more accurate players can’t thrive here. The dry conditions will likely see plenty of run this year.
But I just think the likes of Rory and Bryson can give themselves wedges when others might be hitting mid-irons. That has to be an advantage. It’s always important to look for players with strong links form and the ability to navigate tricky weather conditions. Early reports suggest that the weekend might get a bit blustery. I think approach play will be key this year. Players with the ability to alter their trajectories should thrive. The firm conditions expected will give a big advantage to those guys who can hang their irons miles in the way (like Scheffler or Rory). But that could easily change if the wind picks up and lower trajectories are required to pierce the weather.
Rory’s victory at Renaissance will have him going off as a pretty understandable favourite this week. He won on this course in 2014 and came within a whisker of claiming his 2nd Claret Jug at St Andrews last year. But how will he cope with the gigantic levels of expectation? Scottie Scheffler had a solid outing at Renaissance and will no doubt be in the mix this week. It all comes down to putting for the languid American. Jon Rahm is one of the few premier players who chose to sit out at Renaissance. Will that decision come back to bite the burly Spaniard?
Defending champion Cam Smith has been in excellent form on the LIV Tour while major specialist Brooks Koepka will no doubt be desperate to register his maiden Open Championship victory. Elsewhere, the likes of Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have been consistent performers this year. They both have strong links credentials and could represent some value in this jam-packed field.
Past Winners
2022: Cam Smith (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
Value Bets
Brian Harman- To Win (80/1)
I think that Brian Harman could be a real dark horse this year. The lefty is one of the most accurate drivers out there and I think that will work in his favour. He can avoid a lot of the trouble out there and just plot his way around the course. He is fresh off a really solid T12 finish at Renaissance. He was right in the mix till the shocking weather conditions saw him dip down the standings. But that was by no means his first strong showing on a links. He actually finished in a tie for 6th at last year’s Open Championship at St Andrews. He also arrives here in solid form, finishing T2 at the Travelers, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T12 at Renaissance.
Min Woo Lee- To Win (50/1)
You have to love 24-year-old Aussie Min Woo Lee at this price. The 2021 Scottish Open champion has shown himself to be a really strong links exponent in his young career. He won the Victoria Open on a linksy layout and also finished in a tie for 2nd at the YAS Links earlier this year. He also comes into this event in some really strong form. He finished in a tie for 5th at the US Open and followed that up with a T9 at the Travelers. He then had a solid T15 outing at the British Masters before a sub-standard T35 at last week’s Scottish Open. To be fair, he played solidly last week but just couldn’t get the putts to drop. He should be nicely into his links stride and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name on the leaderboard come Sunday.
The Man to Beat- Rory McIlroy- To Win (7/2)
I know. I know. It’s not the most imaginative pick this year. And given the fact that Rory hasn’t won a Major in nine years- maybe it’s not the smartest. But I just think that all the signs are pointing towards a Rory charge this week. He is arguably the most in-form player in world golf right now, with form figures of T7-T7-T9-2-T7-1 coming into this week’s championships. That included an agonizing runner-up finish to Wyndham Clark at the US Open. And he looked on the verge of another pride-swallowing near-miss at last week’s Scottish Open. He just couldn’t generate momentum while Macintyre stormed up the leaderboard (similar to his final round frustrations at St Andrews last year). But his back-to-back birdies on 17th and 18th will give him massive confidence that he can recapture the prize he won here in 2014. He has worked on developing lower trajectory shots for when the wind picks up. And that came to the fore on Sunday with that exceptional 2-iron into the wind at the last.
Other Bets
Top Englishman- Tommy Fleetwood- 18/1
This looks like magnificent value this week. Tyrell Hatton always looks like he is one step from implosion and Matthew Fitzpatrick has lacked consistency in recent months. Fleetwood finished runner-up at the Canadian Open prior to a T5 finish at the US Open. He just finished in a tie for 6th n Scotland, highlighting his penchant for links golf. He finished runner-up at the 2020 Scottish Open and runner-up at the 2019 Open Championship. He looks destined to compete this week.
Top LIV Golfer- Bryson DeChambeau- 50/1
I really think that DeChambeau’s length could be a major advantage this week. He also arrives in excellent from, finishing in the top 11 in each of his last four LIV starts (including a runner-up finish at Valderrama). He also finished in a tie for 4th at the US PGA Championship before a stuttering end to his US Open charge left him in a tie for 20th. But make no mistake, Bryson is back and ready to compete at the hugest level again.
