Damien Kayat previews the 2023 BMW PGA Championship.
2022/2023 DP World Tour|
Rolex Series
BMW PGA Championship
Wentworth Club (West Course). Surrey, England
14th-17th September
Vincent Norrman’s sensational 7-under-par final round at The K Club ensured that we had back-to-back Swedish winners on the DP World Tour. It was a towering achievement that was overshadowed somewhat by Rory McIlroy’s inexplicable Sunday no-show. This has become something of a disturbing trend for the Northern Irish superstar this season. He starts in mediocre fashion, shoots a fantastic round to get himself bang in contention, and then he putters over the line to secure a top ten. You can almost feel the weight of all those Major Championship near-misses resting squarely on the legend’s shoulders. In any event, the tour moves on to Wentworth for one of the most iconic events in world golf: the BMW PGA Championship. This is the tour’s flagship event and the penultimate in the series of four Rolex Series played this season.
Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first held in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the flagship event of the DP World Tour since its inception in 1972. Previously staged in May, the event was moved into an autumnal slot in 2019 after the US PGA Championship was brought forward in the calendar. And it has proved to be one thing that Keith Pelley and his cohorts have actually gotten right. In the aftermath of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, many of Europe’s finest have actually decided to tee it up here this week. This has obviously been aided by the fact that the Ryder Cup team will be looking to finetune their game ahead of Rome. This will be the 40th consecutive staging of this event at the iconic Wentworth Club.
Wentworth is arguably the most famous non-links course in British golf. The Harry Colt-design was opened in 1926 but it has undergone a few significant facelifts since then. The 18th had become a comically easy par 5 by modern standards. But the introduction of a stream in front of the green has added a tantalizing risk-reward element that makes for riveting viewing. Wentworth is a famously tight, tree-lined heathland track. The narrow fairways make this ideal preparation for the notoriously finicky Marco Simone Golf and Country Club (host of this year’s Ryder Cup). It is certainly not there to be exploited by the bombers (Luke Donald won this event in back-to-back years). While I would favour accuracy over distance this week, I think GIR could be the most important stat. When Shane Lowry won last year, he became the 11th winner in the last 17 editions to finish inside the top four in finding greens. This is also a very nuanced course that tends to reward familiarity. So, it would probably behoove you to focus on players with pretty solid course credentials.
The field is stacked this week, with all 12 members of the European Ryder Cup side in action. Rory McIlroy leads the markets with Masters champ Jon Rahm and FedEx Cup champ Viktor Hovland in hot pursuit. The English quartet of Fitzpatrick, Rose, Hatton and Fleetwood will enjoy boisterous support with the upcoming Ryder Cup in mind (I wonder if we will get any boorish Ryder Cup cheers this week). Someone has to put Adrian Meronk in the same group as Nicolai Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg- just for the banter. Defending champion Shane Lowry justified Luke Donald’s faith in him with an excellent showing last week and he will be chomping at the bit in his quest to make it back-to-back Wentworth titles. Tom Kim and Billy Horschel will fly the American flag at what is sure to be a stellar championship.
Past Winners
2022: Shane Lowry (-17) *54 holes
2021: Billy Horschel (-19)
2020: Tyrell Hatton (-19)
2019: Danny Willett (-20)
2018: Francesco Molinari (-17)
Betting Favourites (To Win):
Rory McIlroy (6/1), Jon Rahm (7/1), Viktor Hovland (7/1), Tommy Fleetwood (13/1), Tyrell Hatton (18/1)
Value Bets
Min Woo Lee- To Win (25/1)
Aussie Min Woo Lee didn’t miss a beat after returning from a six-week layoff last week, finishing in a tie for 7th at the K Club. That was an ominous performance as Lee aims to join his sister in the winner’s circle following her triumph at the Kroger Queen City Championship last week. His T7 at the K Club was remarkably his 10th top ten win over the past 12 months (including four top 3’s). He just strikes me as excellent value this week.
Victor Perez- To Win (66/1)
Perez missed the cut at Crans but I’m willing to overlook that because he generally has poor form up there. The mercurial Perez memorably won the Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi to start the year. He tends to have a knack of turning it on in really elite events. He finished 12th at the US PGA Championship prior to mid-pack finishes in the Scottish Open and Open Championship. The three-time DP World Tour champion will once again feel unlucky to miss put on a Ryder Cup berth. He was forced to withdraw from the ISPA Handa World Invitational due to Covid and that really typifies his luck over the past few years. He was runner-up to Hatton here in 2020 and I think he is a lovely dark horse pick.
The Man to Beat- Tom Kim- To Win (24/1)
I’m really loving the look of young South Korean Tom Kim this week. The 21-year-old- a two-time winner on the US PGA Tour- will be looking to add to his global winning streak this week. Kim has won in America, Korea and Japan and I’m sure he will be desperate to add England into the mix. He has proven to be a class act in elite fields this season, finishing 8th at the US Open, 6th at the Scottish Open and 2nd at the Open Championship. He is 10th on the PGA Tour for Driving Accuracy and he should be giving himself plenty of birdie opportunities this week.
