Damien Kayat previews the 2023 John Deere Classic coming your way from the TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois.
2022/2023 US PGA Tour
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
6th-9th July
It has been a long, hard road for Ricky Fowler. He was castigated by many as one of the most overblown talents in recent golfing history and he has struggled to retain his card over the past few seasons. But he underlined his recent return to form with victory at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, winning his first title since the 2019 Phoenix Open. It’s really hard to think of a more popular PGA Tour winner in recent memory.
The tour moves swiftly onto Illinois for this year’s edition of the John Deere Classic. The John Deere Classic was traditionally staged a week prior to the Open Championship. That was until the PGA Tour co-sanctioned last year’s Scottish Open with the DP World Tour. This year will see the same initiative which means- once again- the John Deere will be held two weeks prior to the Open.
The John Deere Classic- originally known as the Quad Cities Open- started life as a satellite event (it became a regular US PGA Tour event in 1972). Beginning in 2000, the event has been held at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. This event garnered massive fanfare in 2005 and 2006 for the exemptions granted to Michelle Wie (what happened to her?).
Jordan Spieth won the 2013 title to become the first teenager to win on tour since 1931. J.T. Poston won in wire-to-wire fashion last year to win his 2nd PGA Tour title. The field is typically undercooked given the proximity to the upcoming Open Championship. This has only been exacerbated by the fact that this isn’t one of the ‘designated’ events.
Designed by D.A Weibring and located on Native American settlements, TPC Deere run is a par 71 that stretches to almost 7,300 yards. It is really notable for consistently ranking amongst the easiest par 71’s on the entire PGA Tour. Paul Goydos shot a 59 around here in 2010 while 2018 winner Michael Kim holds the scoring record with an incredible 27-under-par.
What you do off the tee is largely irrelevant around this course. The key to success here is accurate iron play and a dialled-in short-game (Jordan Spieth’s success here is proof positive of that). Zach Johnson is almost the prototypical course specialist, winning this title once and finishing runner-up on three occasions. This is actually a course that can throw up some unusual winners (Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim come to mind).
Cameron Young- last year’s Open Championship runner-up- may lead the markets this week. But he is far from the most in-form player in this field. In fact, the burly American hasn’t cracked a top 30 finish since a T7 at the Masters. He will be looking for some confidence this week ahead of the tour’s transatlantic trip.
Denny McCarthy has two top 10’s in his last three starts (including a runner-up finish at a stacked field at the Memorial). Russell Henley has been consistency personified, finishing in the top 20 in each of his last four starts. Swede Ludvig Aberg is one for the future while veterans such as Johnson and Kuchar may fancy their chances in this type of field.
Past Winners
2022: J.T Poston (-25)
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
2018: Michael Kim (-27)
2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Cameron Young (18/1), Denny McCarthy (13/1), Russell Henley (12/1), Ludvig Aberg (22/1), Adam Hadwin (24/1)
Value Bets
Alex Smalley- To Win (33/1)
I really like Alex Smalley’s chances this week given his recent iron play. He gained a whopping 7.3 strokes on approach last week. He gained 5.8 strokes on approach at the Travelers Championship and 2.2 strokes at the RBC Canadian Open. Smalley finished 16th at last year’s John Deere Classic and he looks like a nice dark horse option this week. His T9 finish at TPC River Highlands highlighted his ability to do well in low-scoring events.
Chez Reavie- To Win (50/1)
I felt it only right to back one veteran this week. And 41-year-old Chez Reavie seems to be finding some decent form of late. The three-time PGA Tour winner won his last title at the 2022 Barracuda Championship. He comes into this event off the back of three consecutive top 30 finishes. This included a brilliant T4 in an elite field at the Travelers. He shot a disappointing Sunday 71 to settle for a T29 finish in Detroit. He finished T18 at this event in 2021 and could be one to watch this week.
The Man to Beat
Adam Schenk – To Win (25/1)
I’m happy with avoiding some of the favourites trading at 16/1. Adam Schenk looks like an absolute steal at 33/1. He currently sits 26th in the FedEx Cup standings and has the world’s top 50 in his sight. He also has the Tour Championship and next season’s lucrative designated events to play for.
He has finished runner-up twice this season (at the Valspar Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge). He also has 7th place finishes at Memorial and last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He is an in-form player who should thrive in a decimated field. He has also played well around here previously, finishing 6th in 2019 and 4th in 2021.
