Damien Kayat previews the 2023 FedEx St Jude Championship.
Last week’s regular season closer turned out to be an absolute doozie, with the par 3 16th playing a central role in all the telling drama. Justin Thomas’ chances of qualifying for the playoffs was essentially ruined by a bogey on the 16th. The American almost sensationally chipped in for birdie on the 18th but he ultimately had to settle for 71st place in the FedEx Cup standings, agonizingly missing out on playoff qualification by one shot.
And my pick to win last week- Russell Henley- imploded in the closing stages to hand 2009 US Open champion Lucas Glover the title. That crater he landed in on the 16th will haunt his dreams for some time to come. In any event, the tour moves swiftly on to the first leg of the season-ending FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Originally known as the Memphis Open, the status of this event was upped considerably when it was converted to a WGC event in 2018. Last year it was elevated further, replacing the Northern Trust as the opening leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. This year sees further streamlining of the Playoffs format.
There will only be 70 players teeing it up this week (as opposed to 125). This number will get whittled down to 50 for next week’s BMW Championship. That number will then get narrowed down to the traditional 30 men at East Lake. Victory this week essentially guarantees a strong position in the season-ending Tour Championship. ‘
Designed by Ron Pritchard- in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green- TPC Southwind was opened in 1988 and it is a true ball-strikers paradise. A stern test was made harder in 2004 with renovations adding a further 125 trees and 15 bunkers. Furthermore, the par-5 5th was converted to a par 4, reducing the par to 70. 200 yards were added to the length and the Zoyisa fairways were significantly narrowed.
This is a course that invites all manner of winners. These smaller-than-average Bermuda greens put a real emphasis on strong iron-play. Over the last 13 years, Ben Crane is the only winner to rank outside the top 10 in GIR. Also keep an eye out for strong scrambling stats. The smaller-than-average greens necessitate a short-game that can bail you out from time to time. Par 4 scoring is also crucial around TPC Southwind (there are some mammoth par 4’s out there).
Will Zalatoris will obviously not be defending his title following surgery to fix his herniated discs. Jon Rahm currently sits atop the FedEx Cup standings due to his incredible early-season form. World No.1 Scottie Scheffler and World.2 Rory McIlroy will be duking it out with Rahm for that coveted No.1 ranking over the next few weeks. Elsewhere, the likes of Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark will look to continue their brilliant recent form.
Plenty of players will be attempting to stake their claim for a coveted Ryder Cup spot this week. The likes of Sam Burns and Sepp Straka will want to send a message to their respective captains this week. Newly-minted Open champion Brian Harman will also be making his first competitive appearance since conquering the elements at Hoylake.
Past Winners
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) *playoff
2021: Abraham Ancer (-16) *playoff
2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
Betting Favourites (To Win)
Scottie Scheffler 6/1, Rory McIlroy 15/2, Jon Rahm 8/1, Patrick Cantlay 16/1, Xander Schauffele 16/1
Value Bets
Viktor Hovland- To Win 18/1
Norwegian Viktor Hovland has been one of the most metronomic players on the tour this season. The World No.5 has finished inside the top 20 in an incredible eleven events this season. These included top 20 finishes in each of the four Majors: he clearly loves mixing it up in elite events. Hovland currently ranks 6th on the tour in Total Driving, 7th in strokes gained off-the-tee and 9th in strokes gained tee-to-green. He is as pure a ball striker as you are going to get and he has put a lot of work into improving his short-game.
Cameron Davies
Aussie Cam Davies hasn’t won this season but he has accumulated a very solid- if unremarkable- campaign. He has earned five top 10s and eight top 20’s in his 24 starts. But he has missed a staggering eleven cuts (that’s some Jekyll and Hyde form right there). But five of those missed cuts came in consecutive cuts towards the beginning of the year. He has been excellent of late, finishing T7 at Sedgefield, T10 at the 3M Open. and T17 at the Rocket Mortgage. He finished 13th here last season and he looks like a nice sleeper pick this week.
The Man to Beat- Jon Rahm- To Win 8/1
I just have the feeling that we are going to have a late-season surge by current FedEx Cup leader Jon Rahm. The Spaniard had absolutely no business finishing in a tie for 2nd at the Open Championship. But he somehow managed to overcome a slow start and build his way into contention. Rahm still leads the PGA Tour with four victories this season. But much of that momentum was built on his phenomenal start to the year. But I just think this course will bring out the best in him. He has two top seven finishes in three starts at TPC Southwind (including a T5 last year).
