Damien Kayat previews all of the Mexico Open 2022 action coming your way.
I was delighted with Schauffle and Cantlay’s performance in Louisiana last week. Sure, it never took a soothsayer to predict they may be in contention. But Schauffle hasn’t exactly been knocking on the door of late. But after a Thursday better-ball of 59: there was little to worry about for the elite American duo.
Mexico Open 2022
The tour returns to traditional stroke-play mode in a brand-new edition to the US PGA Tour: the Mexico Open. This is by no means a completely new event: the Mexico Open has been contested in some guise or other since 1944 (it was most recently a Latinoamerica event). But this will be its maiden appearance on the US PGA tour, as it replaces the now defunct WGC-Mexico Championship.
World No.3 Jon Rahm will be the star attraction in a field comprised of 132 players. This will include 12 sponsor exemptions, with a minimum of four players from Latin America.
This week’s course was designed by rival tour runner Greg Norman. Opened in 2015, Vidanta Vallarta is a Paspalum layout that looks like a brute at nearly 7,500 yards. But that’s probably a little deceptive. Norman’s course is usually played as a par 73. But two of the par 5’s will be played as par 4’s this week. By all accounts, this week’s layout won’t play all too hard.
The tour tends to set up brand-new courses quite receptively. The landing areas are quite generous and I think driving distance should be favoured over accuracy this week. But the typically sprawling Norman design does have some features to watch out for. Water is in play on 14 holes while the course features the 2nd most bunkers on tour. These are trademarks of a Norman design. I would look for guys with distance off the tee with decent sand-save percentage. A hot putter could also prove key on these large, undulating greens.
World No.3 Jon Rahm is a pretty understandable favourite on this type of layout. But 5/1! Rahm hasn’t exactly been tearing down trees this year. I don’t think I can justify that price (regardless of the strength of the field). This week’s field is significantly weaker than your stereotypical PGA Tour roster, with many choosing not to embrace the trip south of the border. Mexican Abraham Ancer is idolized in his home country and he will likely share the spotlight with Rahm this week. Elsewhere, the likes of Daniel Berger and Tony Finau help to elevate the profile of this debut event.
Betting Favourites – Mexico Open 2022
(To Win):
Jon Rahm (9/2)
Tony Finau (20/1)
Abraham Ancer (18/1)
Kevin Na (25/1)
Value Bets – Mexico Open 2022
Matt Jones
To Win (40/1)
This one isn’t rocket science. Jones is long off the tee and can make plenty of birdies. That’s as simple as it gets. He is 34th on the tour in Driving Distance and 47th in birdie or better percentage. He is also 8th in holes-per-eagle. So, he tends to thrive on more accessible, sprawling layouts. He is also in form, fresh off his best finish of the season (a T2 at the Valero Texas Open). Aussie Jones could be one to watch on this Aussie-designed layout.
Russel Knox
To Win (40/1)
Knox played pretty well in New Orleans last week, finishing in a tie for 21st playing alongside Brian Stuard. That continues a decent run for Knox, who has only missed one cut since the start of February. He has four top 25 finishes this season despite ranking an abysmal 198th in strokes gained putting. He could contest this week if is he is able to find something with the short-stick. He ranks 21st for SG: Approach and should find plenty of greens this week.
The Man to Beat- Mexico Open 2022
Aaron Wise
To Win (25/1)
I think that Wise could be a contender to win his 2nd PGA Tour title this week. He currently sits 53rd in Driving Distance and 33rd for Scoring Average. He was on absolute fire during the wraparound portion of the tour, securing five consecutive finishes of 26th or better. 2022 has been less kind to Wise. He has missed four of eight starts this year. But he did pick up a T17 and T21 within his last four appearances. I think he is exactly the sort of player who could go on a spree in this less-than-stellar line-up.
