2022 BMW Championship Preview – Damien Kayat gives us two Value Bets and his Man to Beat for the tournament at Wilmington Country Club.
I had an absolute blinder at TPC Southwind last week.
Will Zalatoris came through a dramatic playoff to claim his maiden US PGA Tour title. Sepp Straka just couldn’t handle the pressure when he needed to hit a routine approach at the par 3 11th.
Not only that, Matthew Fitzpatrick also picked up a top 10 that saw two of my picks prosper.
But it was arguably Cam Smith who created the most headlines last week. He has obviously been linked heavily with a proposed 140 million dollar move to LIV Golf. He played it coy last week when asked about the proposals and he was heavily in contention at the 54-hole mark.
But Smith received a two-shot penalty overnight for an improper ball-drop. This seemed to rattle the Aussie as he faded away on Sunday.
Smith – currently ranked 3rd in the FedEx Cup ratings – has opted to swerve this week’s event due to an apparent hip injury.
Could East Lake be the last time we see Smith on the PGA Tour in the immediate future?
In any event, this week’s BMW Championship will be the 2nd leg of the US PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. It was actually introduced in 2007 as the 3rd leg of the original FedEx Cup Playoff series.
The format of the series changed in 2019, wisely shortening the Playoffs to three events.
The BMW Championship is restricted to the final 70 in the FedEx Cup standings and only Cam Smith and Tommy Fleetwood are electing to sit out this week. Fleetwood’s decision is quite bizarre as it guarantees he won’t compete at East Lake.
There will be no 36-hole cut in this event, meaning all 68 players will play the four rounds.
This events is one that moves to a new course each season. The South Course at Wilmington Country Club will be the rather mysterious host course to the 2022 BMW Championship.
Look for guys who can putt and scramble brilliantly (there may actually be a slight Augusta connection here too). But I think it’s probably best to just look at guys coming into this event in decent form.
Sure, Sepp Straka came from nowhere to compete last week. But these closing FedEx Cup events do tend to gravitate to the red-hot players in the field.
Despite a missed-cut in Memphis, Rory McIlroy still leads the markets this week. To be fair, everything about this course screams Rory. He loves low-scoring tournaments with generous fairways. But could he still be feeling the side-effects of that St Andrews disappointment?
Former champ Jon Rahm seemed to recapture some magic this week and he may be peaking at the right time of the year.
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler also missed the cut last week and will be desperate to reassert himself as the world’s leading player.
But when it comes to form you can’t look past Tony Finau. He was right in the mix to make it three consecutive wins at TPC Southwind. Nonetheless, his T5 finish made it three consecutive top 5 finishes for the lanky American. This course looks like it could suit Finau’s combination of big hitting and beautiful touch.
Past Winners
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) *playoff
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) *playoff
2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) *playoff
2017: Marc Leishman (-23)
Betting Favourites – 2022 BMW Championship
Rory McIlroy – 10/1
Jon Rahm – 12/1
Scottie Scheffler – 14/1
Justin Thomas – 14/1
Patrick Cantlay – 14/1
Value Bets – 2022 BMW Championship
Sungjae Im
To Win – 25/1
Sungjae Im is a player in fine form who just looks irresistible at 25/1.
He finished runner-up at both the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship and followed that up with a decent 12th last week (which included a sensational Saturday 63).
Im is an ultra-consistent ball-striker who ranks 9th on tour in three key metrics: tee-to-green, off-the-tee and GIR.
He is hovering just outside the top 10 of the rankings and a big week will really boost his chances of a backdoor FedEx Cup title push.
Sahith Theegala
To Win – 66/1
Sahith Theegala started with brilliant 63 last week before fading somewhat over the weekend.
Still, his T13 helped him nestle into 28th in the current FedEx Cup rankings. He will be supermotivated to make his maiden appearance at East Lake.
Theegala picked up a runner-up finish at the Travellers and a 3rd at the Waste Management Open.
He was 11th last week for SG: Off the Tee and I think he will make a great bet in the place markets.
The Man to Beat – 2022 BMW Championship
Cameron Young
To Win – 20/1
Cameron Young is coming off a pretty disappointing T31 at TPC Southwind.
But let’s put that into context. He was 2nd behind winner Zalatoris in strokes off the tee and on approach but he lost five and a half strokes with the flat-stick. That’s unusual for such a solid putter.
The probable Rookie of the Year just needs to improve his putting to get into the mix this week.
He absolutely smashes it down the fairway and he has been in blistering form of late.
Young has finished inside the top 3 in five of his last nine events. This included a runner-up finish at the Open and a T3 at the US PGA Championship.
He could take some inspiration from Zalatoris and capture his maiden US PGA Tour title.
Bet on golf at www.hollywoodbets.co.uk or www.hollywoodbets.ie
2022 BMW Championship Pview by Damien Kayat
