Gary Lemke swerves the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend as he gives us some interesting stats to inform our Premier League bets.
FA Cup Takes Centre Stage
A truncated EPL programme awaits us this weekend because there’s English FA Cup action, semi-final time. The first match appears a bit of a “gimme” with Man City taking on Championship high-fliers Sheffield United, while an inconsistent Man United have their work cut out against a dangerous Brighton. History points to United though – they have won all five of ther previous FA Cup ties between these two.
The magic of Mitoma 🪄
— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) April 21, 2023
Can he continue his scintillating #EmiratesFACup form and fire @OfficialBHAFC into the Final? 👀 pic.twitter.com/yV3V7nz9LZ
A Boy Becomes A Blue
As a Chelsea fan, I have the weekend off, mercifully. But I would like to relate an FA Cup-related story. The first time I became interested in following an overseas football (soccer) team was as a seven-year-old kid.
Santa had stuffed the matchday programme of that year’s FA Cup final into my Christmas stocking. I read through it and kept the programme. I decided to begin my support based on that programme.
That year’s final had been held at Old Trafford (hmm, do I support Manchester United?), and was played between Chelsea and Leeds. Chelsea won the Cup 2-1 in a replay following an initial 2-2 draw. That was it, then, I started supporting Chelsea.
It was so close to being Leeds, but equally it could have been Man United (beaten by Leeds in the semis) or even Watford (beaten by Chelsea).
My late Dad later revealed that “Santa” also gave me the 1969 FA Cup final programme, but I was too young to be aware of it. Man City beat Leicester 1-0. So, that’s how close I came to supporting Man City!
Perhaps there’s a little boy or girl in a similar situation this year? If so, their options have now been narrowed down to being a future Man United or Man City supporter, Brighton or Sheffield United.
Today is 50 years since we took on Leeds United on the way to ultimately, following a replay, lifting the #FACup for the first time!
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) April 11, 2020
You can watch the 1970 FA Cup final in full today on the Chelsea app from 3pm (BST). 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Fp1VuTgOaB
More Madness On The Cards This Week?
Last week’s Premier League programme was sheer, well “EPL”, as six away teams won, which is a record for the season. You simply don’t get that many away wins, and the season generally averages out at between three and four, closer to three in fact.
There are results that can’t be fathomed, like Bournemouth turning up and beating Tottenham away. Dominated by possession, shots and corners, the visitors managed a smash-and-grab 3-2 win that eases their relegation fears.
And Arsenal wasting a 2-0 lead – and missing a penalty when 2-1 up – to again draw 2-2. Then Liverpool hit Leeds for six, away. Crazy!
Some stats going into this week’s round as well as insight into my thinking:
Gary takes a look at some of stats you should keep in mind before taking your weekend Premier League bets.
Draws Scuppering Arsenal’s Title Charge
Arsenal have drawn their last two matches in a row, having never had more than one draw (three times) before moving on with a W, W and L. That suggests either they or visitors Southampton will take the three points on Friday. Arsenal need to win to open up again by seven points over Man City, who will have two games in hand.
Season-Defining Period For Leicester Coming Up
Leicester have now gone 13 games (basically since returning from the World Cup) without keeping a clean sheet, which is why they are 19th out of 20 in the table. Our column last week was about them and how these next three upcoming games will decide their fate – survival or relegation. This is when the new coaching staff Dean Smith and defensive playing legend John Terry have to work their magic. Leicester play Wolves this weekend. We have said that that clean sheet has to come …
Villians Fourth-Place Smash-And-Grab Hopes Still Alive
Aston Villa have joined the Champions League race and are tipped to beat Brentford, whose shirt sponsors are Hollywoodbets, this weekend. The stats suggest not. They’ve gone on an impressive run and have won their last five games. Winning six in a row in this League is really tough, while Brentford have lost three in a row. Villa have also kept a clean sheet in their last two games, while Brentford have leaked goals in nine of their last 10. And those are the stats that the EPL gods love to turn on their head. Villa fans better leave the cork in the champagne bottle until the final whistle.
Double Bagels (Thankfully) Drying Up
The 0-0s have dried up. There have been four of them in the last 107 EPL games dating back to the beginning of February. Before that there were 17. The 0-0 is still the fifth most common scoreline of the season, but my theory is that the more the sun comes out the more the goals come. As a punter I always tend to pick a few months (winter) where I go strong on the -2.5 match goals and then when things aren’t too bad in summer and spring I go for the +2.5 match goals. That also affects the 2-0s (42 this season) and 2-1s (43 this season).
Magpies’ Streak Streak Broken As UCL Race Heats Up
The W streak always ends. Last week Newcastle lost 3-0 to Aston Villa, a result I tipped for two reasons: it’s the Saturday lunchtime kick-off which so often throws the “upset”, while Newcastle went into that game having won five in a row. As I keep saying, this is the EPL, so sometimes you have to follow stats and trends, knowing the EPL gods are indeed crazy.
City To Pip Gunners To Title?
Man City, who have realistic expectations of the Treble (EPL, FA Cup and Champions League) are in aforementioned FA Cup action this weekend. They’re 4/10 to win the league, with Arsenal 19/10. City have won 6 on the trot in the EPL and need to keep winning. The longest winning streak this season is Arsenal’s seven. That’s why the teams are 1-2 on the log, but as I’ve said before, there are plenty of twists and turns still coming in the run-in to the title.
