Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Men’s ABN AMRO Rotterdam Open – Selected Round of 32 and Round of 16 Matches as Andrey Rublev takes on Alex de Minaur, and Alex Zverev faces Tallon Griekspoor.
2023 WTA Tour
ATP 500
ABN AMRO Rotterdam Open
Rotterdam Ahoy, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 and Round of 16 Matches
15 February
Round of 32
Andrey Rublev (4/10) vs Alex de Minaur (19/10)
Former Rotterdam champ Andrey Rublev will be looking to add to his vaunted ATP 500 record with another title at the Rotterdam Ahoy. It’s been an up-and-down few months for the Russian hardcourt specialist.
The 2021 Rotterdam champ has amassed 15 wins from his last 23 matches. That included a runner-up finish at Gijon. He also reached the semi-finals of the Nitto ATP Finals and the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open.
This will be the Russian’s first appearance since that somewhat chastening defeat to Djokovic at the Aussie Open. Not that losing to the Serb in a Grand Slam quarterfinal is all that surprising. But he was utterly dismantled in a performance that could have left some scar tissue for a player desperate to break that Grand Slam quarterfinal curse.
23-year-old Aussie Alex de Minaur- affectionately known as the ‘Speed Demon’- is also making his first appearance since the Aussie Open.
And like Rublev , he is also smarting from a comprehensive defeat at the hands of the Serbian World No.1 in Melbourne. He hasn’t been in terrible form himself, winning 14 of his last 21 matches.
This included a runner-up finish in the Davis Cup Finals and a semi-final run at the Stockholm Open. That run in Melbourne was his 2nd consecutive 4th round appearance at the Aussie Open. He has slowly emerged as a more plausible threat in big tournaments over the past two years.
His aggression and relentless tenacity is what defines the Aussie. He doesn’t stay complacent and often forces the action. This can lead to a swelling unforced error count if things aren’t quite working.
He also tends to play his best tennis against guys who like to force the action. This probably explains why he has such a good record against the Russian.
Verdict: De Minaur to win in three sets at 54/10
De Minaur leads Rublev 2-1 in their head-to-head rivalry. Sure, Rublev won their last encounter in three sets at last year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. But it’s still an impressive return for the Aussie. As I said, De Minaur loves frustrating opponents with his incredible ability to extend seemingly hopeless rallies.
The ultra-aggressive Rublev has been the victim of that frustration. Rublev is the type of player who typically likes to dominate exchanges and press home his advantage. He can lose his concentration in extended rallies and attempt to recklessly seize the initiative. This is why De Minaur looks decent value for an upset here.
Round of 16
Alex Zverev (26/10) vs Tallon Griekspoor (39/100)
Alex Zverev has had to navigate some troubled waters over the past few years (on and off the court). Those domestic battery allegations threatened to destroy his career at one point.
But he hunkered down and focused on his tennis, winning six titles in 2021 (including Olympic Gold and the ATP Finals). And he seemed to have carried that form into 2022, going toe-to-toe with Rafa Nadal in their French Open semi-final.
But disaster struck, as Zverev rolled his right ankle and tore all three lateral ligaments. It required major surgery and kept him out for the remainder of the year.
And he is slowly starting to find his rhythm again this year, chalking up his 2nd ATP win of the season with a laboured victory over Soon-woo Kwon. He will be troubled by the fact that he only won 30% of his 2nd serve points.
26-year-old Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor will be one of those carrying home hopes this week. He rose to prominence in 2021, becoming the first man in history to win eight Challenger titles in a year.
In fact, he was the first man ever to win five consecutive Challenger titles. He then started making minor inroads on the tour last year, reaching his first ATP singles quarterfinal and winning his maiden doubles title.
But he has started 2023 like a house on fire, winning seven of his eight matches thus far. This included his maiden ATP title win at the Maharashtra Open. He also beat fellow countryman Botic van de Zandschulp in straight sets at the Aussie Open.
In fact, his only loss this season came in the 3rd round of the Aussie Open (where he would lose to eventual finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas). He just ground out a tight victory against Mikael Ymer and he may need to up his game considerably against a resurgent Zverev.
Verdict: Griekspoor to win in three sets at 52/10
Zverev won their only previous encounter in straight-sets at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships. But that was when Zverev was in prime form. His mobility still looks understandably shaky since returning from that horror injury.
And I think that’s something that Griekspoor could seriously exploit. His dynamic, all-action style could prove difficult for Zverev to pin down. I also think he could draw on the hysteria of the home crowd.
