This year’s French Open is down to the last four, with Aryna Sabalenka facing Karolina Muchova while Iga Swiatek clashes with Beatriz Haddad Maia.
Aryna Sabalenka 32/100 | Karolina Muchova 5/2
Considering her tremendous form, second seed Sabalenka will be confident of reaching her first French Open final when she takes on one of the tournament’s surprise packages so far – Muchova.
Sabalenka triumphed over Elina Svitolina in the Roland-Garros quarter-finals, winning 6-4, 6-4. Despite facing resistance, she rallied from a 0-2 deficit in the second set to secure her spot in the tournament’s second week.
Sabalenka, who had previously been eliminated in the third round for three consecutive years, is now dominating the field without dropping a set at this year’s French Open. Her most challenging match came against Sloane Stephens, narrowly avoiding losing a set by just two points.
Sabalenka’s performance in 2023 has been exceptional, and with 34 wins and only five defeats, she has already surpassed last year’s record.
In contrast, she failed to secure any titles in 2022, while this year she has already claimed three. Furthermore, she broke that pattern after losing her first three Grand Slam semi-finals by winning her maiden major title in Melbourne.
Sabalenka’s outstanding performance has put her in contention for the world number-one ranking. She currently holds a perfect 12-0 record in Grand Slam matches, a feat not accomplished since Serena Williams in 2015.
Reaching her seventh career clay-court final would strengthen her case for claiming the top spot.
Meanwhile, Muchova defeated Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 7-5, 6-2 in her quarter-final, which propelled her into her second career Grand Slam semi-final, with her previous one occurring at the 2021 Australian Open.
Muchova faced setbacks due to injuries, including a six-month break following the 2021 US Open, limiting her performance in 2022.
However, she has made a remarkable comeback this year, with some success in WTA 1000 events such as Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, and Rome. Along with her Roland-Garros performance, the Czech player will likely move into the top 50 again, and another victory could push her into the top 30.
Throughout the tournament, Muchova displayed her skills by defeating Maria Sakkari from a 0-3 deficit in the first set and a 0-2 deficit in the second. This marked her eighth career win against a top-10 player and her fifth at a major. While she has reached previous semi-finals but has yet to advance to a final above WTA 250 level.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets at
Sabalenka holds a 1-0 advantage in her head-to-head encounters with Muchova. They met in the 2019 Elite Trophy semis in Zhuhai, where the Belarussian saved a set point in the second set to win 7-5, 7-6.
Sabalenka continues to make history for Belarus in Paris, while Muchova aims to become the fourth finalist from the Czech Republic in the past eight years. Moreover, she holds a perfect 5-0 record in semi-finals this season across all levels.
Iga Swiatek 1/16 | Beatriz Haddad Maia 10/1
Defending champion Swiatek will face Haddad Maia in the semi-finals, one of the few players with a positive winning record against the Pole.
Haddad Maia holds a 1-0 lead over Swiatek in their head-to-head record, having defeated her in three sets at the 2022 Toronto tournament. However, their upcoming match on clay, Swiatek’s favoured surface, presents a different challenge.
Swiatek, who had an impressive 2022 season and won eight titles, has had a relatively underwhelming year.
Despite winning the WTA 500 events in Stuttgart and Doha, she fell short in the finals of the WTA 1000 tournaments in Dubai and Madrid. Swiatek’s title defence ended prematurely in Rome due to a thigh injury, but it hasn’t affected her performance at Roland Garros.
Swiatek has dominated the tournament, winning five consecutive matches and conceding only 15 games. Her quarter-final victory over Coco Gauff, a 2022 French Open final rematch, extended her winning streak at Roland Garros to 12 matches.
Haddad Maia had a breakthrough 2022 season, winning titles in Nottingham and Birmingham and reaching the final of the Canadian Open. She also made an impact in doubles, winning titles in Sydney and Nottingham.
This year, Haddad Maia has continued her success, reaching the semi-finals in Abu Dhabi and quarter-finals in Adelaide, Doha, Stuttgart, and Rome. She achieved her career-high rankings of No. 12 in singles and No. 10 in doubles.
Haddad Maia’s journey in Paris has been marked by determination and resilience. She has won five main-draw matches in a Grand Slam for the first time in her career.
She had to fight from match point down against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the third round and played a gruelling three hours and 51 minutes match against Sara Sorribes Tormo in the Round of 16. In the quarter-finals, she came from a set down to upset seventh seed Ons Jabeur.
Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets at
Swiatek’s comfortable victories and shorter time spent on the court compared to Haddad Maia might give her an advantage in energy levels, and the 14th-seed will need to improve her game and reduce unforced errors against the world number one.
Utilising her net play and taking the ball early could disrupt Swiatek’s rhythm. However, Swiatek’s anticipation, movement, and defensive skills on clay make her a formidable opponent.
Considering Swiatek’s experience and success at Roland Garros, she is expected to reach the final again.
