Damien Kayat previews Iga Swiatek vs lena Rybakina and Veronika Kudermetova vs Anhelina Kalinina in the selected quarter-final and semi-final matches of the Italian Open, on the 17th and 19th of May 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarter-finals and Semi-finals- 17th – 19th May
Quarter-final – 17th May
Iga Swiatek 2/13 | Elena Rybakina 4/1
This promises to be a blockbuster clash in what is fast becoming one of the most exciting young rivalries in women’s tennis. Does Iga Swiatek have the same aura of invincibility that she carried last year? No. Is she still a worthy
World No.1? Absolutely. She has reached four finals this year (winning titles in Qatar and Stuttgart). She will have felt disappointed with the way she succumbed to Sabalenka in the Madrid final. But the two-time defending Rome champ has looked absolutely resplendent in this event.
Her straight-sets victory took her incredible Rome winning streak to 14 matches. Here’s a stat to really illustrate her dominance: she has now won her last 24 consecutive sets here. That’s insanity.
She really loves the red dirt and is starting to look ominous ahead of her French Open title defence. But this upcoming quarterfinal has a little extra on it, with reigning Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina currently holding a psychological head-to-head edge over the Pole.
23-year-old Kazakh Elena Rybakina has quickly become one of the most dangerous big-game players in the sport. She came from virtually nowhere to claim her maiden Grand Slam at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
She proved that was no fluke by reaching another Grand Slam final at this year’s Aussie Open. She then enjoyed a stellar ‘Sunshine Double’, winning in Indian Wells and reaching the Miami final. She has gone slightly off the boil since the tour moved to clay.
Her big-serving, one-two punch style isn’t best suited to the vagaries of these surfaces. She was forced to withdraw from Stuttgart through injury and she was knocked out in the first-round of the Madrid Open.
But she has finally managed to find some traction on the red dirt in Rome. Like Swiatek, she is yet to drop a set this week. And she just negotiated a tricky round of 16 match against Marketa Vondrousova.
Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight-sets 52/100
The Kazakh leads the Pole 2-1 in their head-to-head rivalry. And she has twice beaten Swiatek in crunch matches this year. She derailed Swiatek’s Aussie Open quest before ending her Indian Wells title defense.
But this – their first meeting on clay- is going to be a completely different challenge. Rybakina won’t be able to simply blow Swiatek away with power. She won’t be able to simply target the Swiatek 2nd serve like she has previously. It will have more kick on this surface and Rybakina will struggle to flatten out the exchanges.
Semi-final – 19th May
Veronika Kudermetova 11/20 | Anhelina Kalinina 5/4
26-year-old Veronika Kudermetova is fast emerging as an enticing dark-horse option at this year’s French Open. The big-serving Russian has now reached four semi-finals this season. More importantly, she has now reached back-to-back WTA 1000 clay-court semi-finals.
Sure, she was trounced by Swiatek in the Madrid semi-final. But it showcased true progression for the bludgeoning Kudermetova. She just rallied from a set down to emerge victorious against the industrious Zheng Qinwen.
She actually cites her first-round loss at Charleston as the catalyst for this improved clay-court form. Remember, she actually won her maiden WTA title at the 2021 Charleston Open. She seems really focused and has developed other facets of her game (such as mobility).
Where on earth did this Kalinina performance come from? She came into this tournament off the back of four consecutive defeats. She hasn’t reached a quarterfinal since Hobart earlier this year.
But she has somehow negotiated a tricky draw to reach her maiden WTA 1000 semi-final. She came out of the blocks fast in Rome, blowing away Potapova and Kenin in emphatic straight-sets wins. She then came from a set down to overcome experienced American Madison Keys.
But I was convinced that Kalinina would be blown away by big-serving Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia. But she once again showed commendable resilience to come from a set behind. All those years plying her trade on the ITF circuit have given her a tremendous work ethic and she is leaving absolutely everything out there.
Verdict: Kalinina to win in three – 10/3
This will be their 3rd career meeting (with each player registering a win). It was, however, the Ukrainian who persevered when they met in Dubai earlier this year. That was a really rollercoaster of a match and I think you can expect something similar here.
Kalinina has absorbed some really immense power from Keys and Haddad Maia. And she has somehow managed to overcome those challenges. Kudermetova has played plenty of three-setters of late and may come a cropper against the nuggety Kalinina.
