Damien Kayat previews Coco Gauff vs Paula Badosa and Liudmila Samsonova vs Jelena Ostapenko in the Selected Round of 32 matches of the Madrid Open on 29 April 2023
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32
Matches- 29th April
Coco Gauff 9/10 | Paula Badosa 4/5
This glamour tie could be an absolute blockbuster. 19-year-old Coco Gauff has firmly established herself as one of the most accomplished clay-court players in the world. She has brilliant variety and has a ‘never say die’ attitude that is so richly rewarded on these surfaces (just look at Rafa Nadal).
She won the Parma event in 2021 and reached her maiden Grand Slam final at last year’s French Open. The way she capitulated in the final against Swiatek would have left lesser players with significant scar tissue. But Gauff has just continued playing consistent tennis since that dramatic defeat.
Her emphatic opening round win over Burillo Escorihuela took her 2023 record to 17-6. But she has struggled to convert quarterfinals and semi-finals into more titles. She won an admittedly understrength Auckland event earlier this year but she hasn’t reached a final since. She is also coming off back-to-back early exits in Miami and Stuttgart.
25-year-old Spaniard Paula Badosa spent most of 2022 comfortably lodged inside the top five of the WTA rankings (reaching as high as number 2). The 2021 Indian Wells champion then started to battle with illness in the latter part of the year, withdrawing from tournaments and completely losing her momentum. She actually lost eight of her final ten matches last year. And injury forced her to withdraw from this year’s Aussie Open and miss much of the early season.
Her hard-fought opening round victory over Elisabetta Cocciaretto took her 2023 record to a respectable 12-6. But a lack of key victories has seen her WTA ranking plummet to 42. Still, it seems as if Badosa has found some traction on her favorite surface. She reached the quarterfinals in Charleston and Stuttgart and she returns to a venue where she reached the semi-finals in 2021. The 2021 French Open quarterfinalist has the power and athleticism to dominate on these courts.
The Verdict: Badosa to win in three
Badosa leads Gauff 2-1, last beating Gauff in the 2022 San Jose quarterfinals. I just have a feeling that the 2021 Madrid semi-finalist is about to experience a resurgence. She has shown real improvement on clay and it looks as if her body is getting into fighting shape.
Gauff has looked slightly tentative in recent weeks, perhaps still adjusting to her recent coaching shake-up.
Liudmila Samsonova 20/21 | Jelena Ostapenko 3/4
This is a head-scratcher. Liudmila Samsonova and Jelena Ostapenko are two of the most erratic players on tour. But they are undeniable powerhouses who don’t mind going for their shots. 24-year-old Russian Liudmila Samsonova enjoyed an absolutely fabulous hardcourt run last year, winning three titles with her gigantic serve operating at elite levels. She then went completely quiet for the remainder the year.
But she burst into the top 15 in the world courtesy of a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. And since then, she has been 3-5 for the year. But she will take some solace after a nice start to the week. After a bye to round two, Samsonova impressed in a straight-sets win against Maryna Zanevska. It was a match that only took 17 games to decide as she won an impressive 79% of her first-serve points. Not noted for her clay-court prowess, Samsonova is going to need that weapon to work at its optimum on this surface.
Why is it that I’m inexorably drawn to Jelena Ostapenko? There’s just something about the mercurial Latvian that ignites my masochistic side. Because let’s face it: she is a nightmare for a betting analyst. The 2017 French Open champion has reached 13 finals in her career (winning five). But she also has the ability to go on losing streaks usually reserved for ITF players.
She is having a fairly humdrum year. A quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open inflates her year-to-date record to 14-9. But she did look pretty good in Stuttgart- thrashing Emma Radacanu and pushing clay-court expert Ons Jabeur to three sets. Yes, she won the French Open and reached the Charleston final in 2017. But she hasn’t really achieved much on clay since, reserving most of her best tennis for hardcourts. But she just schooled Fruhvirtova and will be hoping to find a bit of consistency this week.
The Verdict: Ostapenko to win in straight sets
Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 2-0, last beating the Russian in the 2021 Luxembourg semifinal. I just think that Ostapenko is far more comfortable on these surfaces.
Samsonova is overly reliant on her serve at the best of times. But I expect Ostapenko will be able to make inroads on this surface. I also think we have seen glimmers of prime-Ostapenko in recent weeks.
