Damien Kayat previews Stan Wawrinka vs Maxime Cressy and Dominic Thiem vs Kyle Edmund in the Round of 128 matches of the Madrid Open, on 26 April 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 128 Matches – 26th April
Stan Wawrinka 2/5 | Maxime Cressy 17/10
This is set to be a classical clash of styles in the opening stages of the Madrid Open. 38-year-old Swiss Stan Wawrinka is certainly not going to rediscover the form that saw him capture three Grand Slam titles.
But he seems determined to remain on tour and will draw on all his nous in Madrid. He has a pretty decent 16-12 record in this event. He actually reached the final way back in 2013 and reached the quarterfinals when he last competed four years back. Both of those times he ran into a rampaging Rafa Nadal.
Having said that, the Swiss doesn’t arrive in Madrid in particularly good form. His shock opening-round loss to Luca Van Assche in Serbia took his year-to-date record to 10-8. He had a decent few weeks in Feb (making back-to-back quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Montpelier). But what he lacks in form he more than makes for in clay-court experience. The former French Open winner has seven titles to his name on this surface.
American Maxime Cressy is 7-10 this year and arrives in Madrid off back-to-back opening-round losses in Monte-Carlo and Marrakech. It’s really just a continuation of his all-round clay-court deficiencies.
The American has only won one match on clay in his entire career. And it makes perfect sense. A prototypical serve-and-volley exponent, Cressy really needs the courts fast to optimize his style. He actually reached a final earlier this year in Montpelier (he lost to Jannik Sinner).
But he has only one two matches out of nine since then. It’s hard to put too much faith in the American when you combine his current form and broader clay-court pedigree (or lack thereof). But he is an awkward opponent who has the capacity to spring surprises.
He will look to upset the flow of the match with his retro serve-and-volley approach.
Verdict: Wawrinka to win in straight sets at 21/20
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Cressy’s style just doesn’t translate well to success on these slower surfaces. He isn’t going up against a vintage Wawrinka.
But Wawrinka is in remarkable shape and should have the durability to wear the American down. He will hug the baseline in typical fashion and should come through in straight sets.
The perfect smash 👌#SrpskaOpen | @stanwawrinka pic.twitter.com/acAtEoFqot
— ATP Tour (@atptour) April 17, 2023
Dominic Thiem 2/13 | Kyle Edmund 7/2
2020 US Open champion Dominic Thiem has been starting to show glimpses of the form that saw him become one of the leading players in men’s tennis. He has been absolutely beset by injury issues over the past three years.
He won only one of his first ten matches this calendar year. But it seems as if the switch to clay has done something to reenergize the Austrian. He reached the quarterfinals in Estoril and is fresh off another quarterfinal run in Munich.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Thiem was the heir apparent to Nadal’s clay-court throne. He reached four consecutive French Open semi-finals between 2016-1019 (reaching the final in 2018 and 2019).
He reached back-to-back finals here in 2017 and 2018 and could use this portion of the season as a springboard towards more consistent form. And next up for Thiem is a woefully out-of-form Kyle Edmund.
Currently ranked 498th in the world, 28-year-old Brit Kyle Edmund is in absolute freefall. The former World.14 faced a similar injury crisis to that of his opponent Dominic Thiem.
A chronic knee injury sustained in 2021 has really sucked out all of his momentum. The Brit was actually forced to play the Futures earlier this month to try gain some confidence.
Returning to Munich last week, Edmund will take some solace from the fact that he pushed Marc-Andrea Huesler to three sets. He hasn’t reached a final since 2020 and he desperately needs to string a few wins together.
But clay was never really Edmund’s cup of tea (though he did reach the final of the Grand Prix Hassan II in 2018).
Verdict: Thiem to win in straight sets at 4/9
Thiem won their only previous encounter in straight sets at the 2017 Barcelona Open. I know that Theim is currently a shadow of the player who stalked Nadal on the European clay-courts for the last decade.
But there are real signs of life in his game. He is also running into one of the few players who has possibly endured worse injury issues than him.
