Damien Kayat previews Maria Sakkari vs Shelby Rogers and Magda Linette vs Emma Radacanu in the Selected Round of 64 matches of the Indian Wells Masters, on 11 March 2023.
Maria Sakkari 11/20 | Shelby Rogers 7/5
Maria Sakkari is quite an oddity. The current world no.7 reached as high as number 3 in the world last March. Yet, she has still only won one title in her entire career (the 2019 Moroccan Open).
How has she managed to stay this relevant? By being one of the most consistent players in world tennis. It must be a source of both pride and frustration that she manages to reach so many semi-finals. Why can’t she seal the deal more regularly? She has the power and tools at her disposal.
And this season has been a microcosm of that fact. She is 11-5 for the season, losing in the semi-finals of both the Linz and Qatar Open. She was just thrashed in the first round of Dubai by a struggling Karolina Pliskova. So, what can we expect from Sakkari this week?
We know one thing: she does love this Masters 1000 stage. She lost in the final here last year and would also go down in the final of the Guadalajara Open. She won all her round-robin matches at the season-ending WTA Finals before running into a demented Caroline Garcia.
World no.41 Shelby Rogers is a solid hardcourt player who always has a surprise in her locker. True, she hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this season (she is currently 5-5 for the year).
But the inconsistent American often seems to find her groove against the top players. She has beaten the likes of Serena Williams and Ashleigh Barty in her career. She reached her first WTA 500 final at last year’s Silicon Valley Classic (highlighting her ability to duke it out on North-American hardcourts).
The 30-year-old beat Katie Volynets- who may have the best name in tennis history- in three sets on Monday. She served well in the match, winning 67% of her first-serve points throughout. She will feel confident playing against a top 10 player who she seems to own.
Verdict: Rogers to win in three at 7/2
Rogers has completely dominated their head-to-head rivalry, winning all three of their previous matches. Two of those matches came on hardcourts last year (Adelaide and San Jose). Rogers is a player who has the power to go toe-to-toe from the baseline with Sakkari. That consistency of stroke and unwillingness to bend to Sakkari’s power has tended to force the Greek to look for a little too much in response.
Magda Linette 1/1 | Emma Radacanu 4/5
20th seed Magda Linette is currently enjoying her best season on tour. The 31-year-old Pole has always been something of a defensive baseliner, enjoying intermittent success on tour.
But she has started to shine since adopting a far more aggressive approach. This was evident in her run to the Chennai Open final in September. And she has gone from strength to strength this year. She helped Poland reach the semi-final of the United Cup, winning three of her four matches.
And then she picked up the biggest result of her career, reaching her first Grand Slam semi-final in Melbourne (outshining fellow Pole and World No.1 Iga Swiatek in the process).
She then reached the quarterfinals of the Merida Open before a poor first-round defeat in Austin. It will be interesting to see how she adapts this week. She may have to dial back the aggression and remain more cautious in these slow, blustery conditions.
It says something about the state of ladies’ tennis in the UK that 2021 US Open champion Emma Radacanu is still British No.1. She hasn’t reached a final since that fateful run, often falling to far less fancied opponents.
But she seems a bit more mature this year and has just improved her season’s record to 3-2. She just played her first match since losing to Gauff in the Aussie Open. Tonsillitis had kept her out of action for the past month.
And there were more concerns for her entering Indian Wells, as her wrist injury from last year started to act up again. But she navigated both issues with consummate ease against doughty competitor Danka Kovinic. Her comfortable straight-sets win highlighted her resilience and growing tennis acumen.
The gusty desert conditions made it hard to penetrate these slow courts. She decided to play the percentages, hitting plenty of slices and loopy clay-court type shots. Kovinic couldn’t adapt and went down easily.
Verdict: Radacanu to win in straight sets at 17/10
Radacanu comfortably won their only previous encounter at last year’s Korea Open. This should be a fascinating one. Radacanu is playing under a slight injury cloud while Linette has lost her last two matches to less fancied opponents. I think Radacanu’s performance against Kovinic has swayed me to her side.
It was one of her most mature recent outings, brilliantly taking the conditions into account. I think Linette may find it hard to adapt to the slower conditions (especially since her game has evolved into a far more aggressive beast).
