Damien Kayat previews Dominic Thiem vs Adrian Mannarino and John Isner vs Brandon Nakashima in the Selected Round of 128 Matches of the Indian Wells Masters.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, California
Selected Round of 128 Matches – 8th March
Dominic Thiem | Adrian Mannarino
This is a clash of two players who are both currently struggling with form. Former US Open champion Dominic Thiem has endured a depressing plummet down the world rankings over the last two years.
A champion here in 2019, Thiem looked set to be one of the natural successors to the ‘Big Three’. But injury has absolutely eviscerated the Austrian’s career. He was forced to withdraw against Adrian Mannarino at the 2021 Mallorca Open with a wrist injury.
Little did he know that injury would keep him away from tennis for almost a year. Thiem has tried his best to get his body back to peak physical condition. But the former World No.3 has won just one match at the highest level all season (a victory against Alex Molcan at Buenos Aires).
He actually comes into this match on a run of three successive defeats. He may take some solace from the fact that his next opponent- Adrian Mannarino- is also in a rut.
34-year-old Frenchman Adrian Mannarino actually started this year in pretty decent nick. He reached the quarterfinals at both the Delray Beach Open and Dallas Open.
A victory over hard-hitting JJ Wolf will have given him some real confidence. But defeats to Aleksandar Kovacevic at the Monterrey Challegner and Elias Ymer in Acapulco have really set the veteran Frenchman back.
He- like Thiem- comes into this event on the back of three successive defeats. Mannarino should theoretically play well on these fairly slow hard surfaces. The ball tends to grip at Indian Wells, allowing Mannarino to compete with his throwback slice and volley style. But an overall 8-9 win-loss record at Indian Wells doesn’t auger too well for the Frenchman.
Verdict: Mannarino to win in three sets
Thiem had a complete stranglehold on this rivalry prior to his injury catastrophes. He had eight consecutive victories leading to that fateful 2021 Mallorca Open encounter. Generally speaking, Thiem should have too much power for the chip-and-slice shenanigans of Mannarino. But Mannarino has an opportunity on these slower courts (especially against a player who has only won one match this year).
John Isner | Brandon Nakashima
Has time finally caught up to 37-year-old serving behemoth John Isner? His results this year would give you this answer: yes and no. Broadly speaking, his form has been quite poor.
He lost his opening match of the year to Gregoire Barrere in Auckland. And things never improved in the year’s first Slam- he was dismissed by Adrian Mannarino in the first round of the Aussie Open.
He was also defeated by Taylor Fritz in the first round of Acapulco. While that result was to be expected, the fact that he wasn’t able to take Fritz to a tiebreak in either set will have disturbed him (his serve obviously being his bread-and-butter).
Isner did manage to reach the Dallas final in the middle of all this mediocrity. His penchant for performing in American conditions remains undimmed. A losing finalist here in 2012, can Isner’s gigantic serve help power him to one more deep Masters 1000 run?
Next up for Isner will be 21-year-old compatriot Brandon Nakashima. Nakashima will have looked to build on an extremely successful end to his 2022 campaign.
He won the San Diego Open prior to an impressive ATP NextGen tournament victory. Things were looking up for the young American. But things have simply not gone to plan in 2023.
It is coming into March and he has only won one match this entire year. And he was absolutely trounced last time out, losing 6-2, 6-0 to Mackenzie McDonald in last week’s Mexican Open. He has never gone beyond the 2nd round here.
He holds a pretty dismal overall record in Masters 1000 tennis, winning just three out of 11 matches played at this level.
Verdict: Isner to win in straight-sets
Nakashima actually lead the head-to-head rivalry 2-1, beating Isner twice in their three 2021 hardcourt meetings. I just think that Nakashima’s form is atrocious and Isner has the muscle memory to do well this week. That defeat to McDonald was soul crushing and Isner has the experience to exploit that.
