Damien Kayat previews Alex Zverev vs Andy Murray and Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jason Kubler in the 2023 Qatar Open’s Round of 16.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Qatar Open
Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 22nd February
Alex Zverev 61/100 | Andy Murray 5/4
This promises to be a mouth-watering tie between the perpetually injured Andy Murray and the recovering Alex Zverev.
The German is nursing himself back to fitness, still recovering from his horror ankle injury in the semi-final of last year’s French Open. It was a pity, as Zverev was actually proving extremely competitive against clay-court demigod Rafa Nadal.
The former US Open finalist had an amazing 2021, winning six titles (including the Olympic Gold Medal and ATP Finals). But I think it’s going to take some time for the real Alex Zverev to manifest.
He is 2-2 for the year, losing to Tallon Griekspoor in last week’s Rotterdam Open. He has struggled on serve, winning only 30% of his second-serve points in his victory against Soon-woo Kwon.
The World No.17 has received a bye into this round of 16 match. He will be looking for a strong week to reaffirm himself as a major force in the men’s game.
You have to hand it to 35-year-old Scot Andy Murray. With the assortment of debilitating injuries that he has faced in his career, it could have been very easy to turn away from the sport.
But the former World No.1 seems to still crave competition and has showcased it a number of times this year. He saved a match-point in his first-round Aussie Open epic against Matteo Berrettini.
He then came back from two sets down against Thanasi Kokkinakis, silencing the Aussie faithful with a typically gutsy display. And the masochistic Scot was at it against this week, saving three match-points en route to victory over Lorenzo Sonego.
It almost seems that Murray enjoys pushing himself to extremes. It’s a sign of the Scot’s longevity that he won back-to-back Qatar titles in 2008 and 2009 (the last time he reached the final here was 2017).
The Verdict: Murray to win at 5/4
Value: Murray to win in three at 4/1
I was surprised to learn that this will be just the 4th meeting between these two (which is obviously a reflection of Murray’s troubled injury past).
Zverev won their last match in straight-sets at the 2021 Indian Wells Masters. But he is obviously an entirely different beast to that version of Zverev.
I really think that ironman Murray has what it takes to diffuse the big-serving German. The canny operator will get into extended rallies, looking to constantly put pressure on the rehabilitating Zverev.
Felix Auger-Aliassime 1/6 | Jason Kubler 4/1
Felix Auger-Aliassime is a player looking to realise his true potential. He broke his ATP Tour duck in Rotterdam last year, going on to win a further three titles in a consistent year.
But he couldn’t really back that up on the Grand Slam stage. And the talented Canadian has had a very rickety start to his 2023 campaign. He suffered a first-round defeat at the Adelaide International prior to a round of 16 run at the Aussie Open.
He was then soundly beaten by Daniil Medvedev when defending his Rotterdam title last week. He has received a bye into this round and will look for a confident start against the unpredictable Aussie Jason Kubler.
29-year-old Jason Kubler is emerging as somewhat of a late bloomer. He is 4-2 this year on the tour and 6-3 total. He won both his matches at the United Cup before reaching the final 16 in Adelaide.
He also managed to squeeze into the second round of the Aussie Open. But the highlight of his year came in doubles, where he and partner, Rinky Hijikata won their maiden Grand Slam title.
He had an impressive season at the lower levels last year, accumulating a handy 50-22 win-loss record. He features in two ITF finals and two Challenger finals (both of those Challenger finals coming on hard surfaces).
Aslan Karatsev withdrew from their opening match and Kubel is looking like the definition of a dangerous floater this week.
The Verdict: Kubler to win at 4/1
Kubler actually leads the head-to-head 1-0, picking up a massive upset victory at last year’s Newport event. I really think there is some value in backing the indefatigable Aussie this week.
These surfaces aren’t particularly quick and I can imagine him getting a lot of balls back into play. Aliasimme has lacked decisiveness this year and I just think this one is worth it for the value.
