Damien Kayat previews the 2023 Women’s Australian Open selected third round matches as Madison Keys takes on Victoria Azarenka and Danielle Collins faces Elena Rybakina.
2023 ATP Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected 3rd Round Matches
20 January
Madison Keys (11/10) | Victoria Azarenka (8/11)
This looks set to be a grueling encounter between two of the most brutal ball-strikers in women’s tennis. Much like last year- where she won her 6th title in Adelaide- Madison Keys has started the season like a house on fire.
She won five consecutive matches at the United Cup to edge her way back into the world’s top 10. She will be hoping to replicate her brilliant Aussie Open showing last year (she reached the semi-finals for the 2nd time in her career). She struggled in her opening match, pushed to three sets by Blinkova. But she looked back to her best against Xinyu Yang, firing 26 winners and landing over 70% of her first-serves.
She will now be aiming to reach the 2nd week at Melbourne for the 6th time in her career. A persistent Grand Slam presence for nearly a decade, Keys is a premium ball-striker who absolutely thrives on these fast, flat surfaces. She will look to pick up some cheap points on serve and dictate with the forehand.
I fancied 33-year-old Victoria Azarenka as one of my dark horse picks in my pre-tournament assessment. A former two-time Aussie Open champion, Azarenka’s latter career has been devastated by a protracted custody battle and injuries.
But- much like Keys, Azarenka has the capacity to pitch up on the big occasion. She reached the US Open final in 2020 before an Indian Wells final in 2021. She had an indifferent 2022. She did show her class towards the back end of the year, reaching a WTA 1000 semi-final at the Guadalajara Open. She hits the ball flat and just thrives on these quick surfaces. That being said, it has been some time since her glory days in Melbourne.
But she looked in imperious form this year, defeating former champion Sofia Kenin in straight sets in her first-round match. She then pulverized poor Nadia Podorowska in her second-round match. She suffocated the court, forcing the Argentine back with her relentless power. It will be interesting to see which of these players cracks first in this titanic battle.
Verdict: Azarenka to win in three sets at 3/1
Azarenka actually leads Keys 3-0 in their head-to-head series. Azarenka will feel quietly confident given the head-to-head record. That being said, the American did push the Belarusian to three sets in Guadalajara last year. This one is tough to call.
My heart is leaning towards my pre-tournament selection. But my brain is drifting towards the American. Keys is showing signs of the form that helped propel her towards the semi-finals last year. I’m opting for the heart. Azarenka knows that her opportunities to win another Slam are likely numbered. She looks truly self-possessed this year and I think she could go deep again.
Danielle Collins (6/5) | Elena Rybakina (4/6)
One thing you have to say about Danielle Collins: she isn’t boring. The embodiment of the competitive American ethos, Collins celebrates more vociferously (and often) than most.
And it created an absolutely hilarious situation in her second-round victory against Karolina Muchova. She mistakenly thought she had won her 3rd set tiebreaker when the score was 7-3. Little did she realize that the winner had to actually reach ten points. It was a moment of levity that had to be seen to be believed.
Danielle Collins has been typically Danielle Collins in her first two matches. Both matches have gone the distance, with the American spraying winners and unforced errors in equal abandon. Collins is grinding her way through at the moment and will be hoping that she can find her best game as the tournament progresses.
She reached the semi-finals here in 2019 and reached her maiden Grand Slam final here last year. She feeds off the wild atmosphere and will become stronger as the tournament develops.
23-year-old Kazakh Elena Rybakina has been treated a bit dismissively by tournament organizers of late. The reigning Wimbledon champion was relegated to court 13 for her first match this year.
Rybakina is a naturally quiet person who doesn’t command attention. Still, you would think the current Wimbledon champ would get a little more traction. But she hasn’t let it affect her, winning both her games in absolutely devastating fashion.
These fast courts are obviously perfect for her absolutely gigantic serve. Rybakina is actually similar to Collins in that she mixes up a huge number of winners with plenty of unforced errors. This match could have a stop-start quality, with both ladies looking to seize the initiative.
Verdict: Rybakina to win in straight sets at 29/20
This has proven to be an extremely tight head-to-head rivalry (they share the spoils 1-1). Collins won a very tight straight sets encounter at San Jose in 2021. And Rybakina avenged that defeat with a seesaw battle in Adelaide a few weeks back.
I really think the Kazakh has a point to prove here. She has let the racquet do the talking this week and I feel like Collins’ epic matches could catch up to her.
