Damien Kayat previews the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open, picking out his best Value Bets and Man To Beat for the tournament.
You thought that the Aussie Open crowds were a tad boorish, did you? This week’s trip to Arizona will make that look like a trip to a monastery. Affectionally known as the ‘Greatest Show on Grass’, the Phoenix Open is the best-attended event on the entire PGA Tour.
Drawing nearly 500,000 spectators each year, it has fast developed a reputation for absolutely insane galleries. Akin to the atmosphere of the Ryder Cup, I personally find it all a bit ‘entitled frat-boy’ for my tastes. But to each their own.
Nevertheless, you can’t deny the history of this great event. It is actually one of the oldest events on the PGA Tour, dating back 90 years, where it was originally called the Arizona Open. For the last 35 years it has been hosted at the now-iconic TPC Scottsdale.
TPC Scottsdale – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
The Stadium Course was actually built specifically for this event. It is a desert-style layout with a links feel. It isn’t overwhelmingly long by any stretch of the imagination (though stats do seem to suggest that driving distance is more important than accuracy this week).
The undulating Bermuda fairways and fast Bermuda greens reward the pure ball strikers in the field (finding Greens in Regulation is essential to success here). This event also takes a bit of nous as it is played at elevation.
But the real star attraction of the Stadium Course is its pulse-pounding finish. The 15th is a reachable par five. The infamous par three 16th is like Sawgrass’ 17th on amphetamines (even without the water).
It is the only fully enclosed hole on the PGA Tour, earning it the nickname ‘The Coliseum’. This is where the loutish behaviour is turned up to 11. The 17th is also a reachable par four. All in all, everything can change in a heartbeat over this daunting final stretch.
Rahm to challenge in familiar surrounds? – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Though he hasn’t captured victory yet at TPC Scottsdale, World Number One Jon Rahm has shown a real penchant for this course over the years. He is a graduate of Arizona State University and he will be desperate to add this event to his honours roll this week.
Defending champion Brooks Koepka hasn’t played a hell of a lot of golf lately and it will be interesting to see how he fares this week. The likes of Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay always pose a threat to the upper reaches of the leaderboard.
Bang in-form Hideki Matsuyama has enjoyed an incredible 12 months and he will be looking to make it a threepeat at the Stadium Course this week. You can expect Jordan Spieth and Ricky Fowler to enjoy the lion’s share of the crowd enthusiasm this week.
Past Winners – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-17) *playoff
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018: Gary Woodland (-18) *playoff
2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) *playoff
2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14) *playoff
To Win Outright – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Jon Rahm – 13/2
Justin Thomas – 12/1
Patrick Cantlay – 12/1
Viktor Hovland – 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama – 16/1
Value Bets – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Jordan Spieth
To Win – 18/1
Spieth will feel extremely frustrated after letting one slip last week. Spieth led at Pebble Beach with just a few holes to play. But he ultimately has to settle for a runner-up finish. Still, last week represented a massive improvement in his approach play.
Jordan finished 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach (which is obviously a vital stat around TPC Scottsdale).
Spieth also has an excellent record in this event, with three top 10’s in five starts in Phoenix. That included a career-best 4th last year.
Corey Conners
To Win – 40/1
Conners has enjoyed a slightly schizophrenic start to the new PGA Tour season.
He has three top 25 finishes and a couple of missed cuts. But he has been trending in the right direction in this event.
Corey finished in a humdrum 45th in 2020 before a more impressive 17th last year.
But the thing that appeals to me is just how well the Canadian suits this course. In the last three months on tour, he ranks 9th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 2nd for SG: Approach.
The Man to Beat – 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Hideki Matsuyama
To Win – 16/1
I know I’m taking the obvious route this week. Matsuyama has exceptional course history, winning this event in back-to-back years between 2016 and 2017 after finishing as a joint runner-up in 2015. Couple that with his scintillating form over the past year and you have an irresistible option at 18/1.
Hideki has won three times on tour in less than a year (which obviously includes last year’s Masters). He also finished runner-up at last year’s WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
More importantly, he has two wins in his last four starts on tour.
He has finally sorted out some of the putting demons that have plagued him throughout the early stages of his career.
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