The Tour Championship brings the curtain down on the 2021 PGA Tour season, with this week’s winner bagging $15 million.
You couldn’t have asked for a more dramatic finish at last week’s BMW Championship. Patrick Cantlay showed zen-like powers of cool to hold off the bullish Bryson DeChamebau in a protracted playoff. That win helped catapult Cantlay to number one in the FedEx Cup standings (which is rather ridiculous when you look at the seasonal form of Rahm and Morikawa).
In any event, Cantlay also managed to secure the 6th and final automatic qualification spot for Steve Stricker’s Ryder Cup side. His win nudged out Tony Finau as he joined Morikawa, Johnson, DeChambeau, Koepka and Justin Thomas. Finau, Schauffele and Spieth are pretty much guaranteed to join as captain’s picks.
It will be fascinating to see if Captain America Patrick Reed will tee it up this week at the Tour Championship. Through contortions of near mathematical improbability, Reed managed to somehow qualify for the season-ending showpiece without hitting a ball last week. This may turn into a glorified audition for the burly American after his bout of bilateral pneumonia.
The final 30 players in the FedEx Cup rankings make it to the ‘promised land’ at this week’s Tour Championship, teeing it up for the chance to win a crazy 15-million-dollar bonus. The arbitrary FedEx Cup points system and staggered start make this feel more like a week of exhibition golf. By qualifying for this event, players know that they will be exempt for three of next year’s four majors (amongst other exemptions).
In 2019, the tour implemented their new strokes-based system called the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes. I get it. They wanted to ensure that players were rewarded for their form throughout the season. But then why make the first two Playoff events so much more valuable than any other event throughout the year? Just feels like a slight contradiction.
In any event, here follows the starting scores for all 30 players ahead of this week’s Tour Championship:
Cantlay (-10)
Finau (-8)
DeChambeau (-7)
Rahm (-6)
Smith (-5)
Thomas, Ancer, English, Burns, Spieth (-4)
Im, Morikawa, Hovland, Oosthuizen, Johnson (-3)
McIlroy, Schauffele, Kokrak, Na, Koepka (-2)
Conners, Matsuyama, Cink, Niemann, Scheffler (-1)
Berger, van Rooyen, Garcia, Horschel, Reed (E)
The iconic East Lake was originally designed by Donald Ross prior to a Rees Jones renovation in 2008. This is the home golf course of Bobby Jones and is the oldest golf course in Atlanta. This is a ball-strikers heaven, with accuracy generally being rewarded more than brute power from the tee (it’s little wonder why ball-striking dynamo Xander Schauffele technically played best here last year). Those who putt well on these undulating Bermuda greens should do well. But it all really boils down to finding that sweet spot between accuracy and length.
I actually have a strong urge to duck Cantlay this week, despite the two-shot advantage. He may take it easy this week after qualifying for the Ryder Cup automatically last week.
I’m more inclined to lean towards the likes of Finau and Rahm after their weeks of consistent success.
Bryson DeChambeau seems to have turned the corner after apparently squashing his ‘beef’ with Koepka last week. It’s slightly damning that I’m using language generally reserved for gangster rappers in regards to professional golfers. But times are changing, I suppose.
Watching 30 players on course always introduces a large swathe of dead-time (there’s only so many times that you can watch McIlroy holing out from the 16th fairway in 2016).
Past 5 FedEx Cup Winners
2020: Dustin Johnson
2019: Rory McIlroy
2018: Justin Rose
2017: Justin Thomas
2016: Rory McIlroy
To Win
Patrick Cantlay – 4/1
Jon Rahm – 4/1
Bryson DeChambeau – 9/2
Tony Finau – 7/1
Dustin Johnson – 20/1
Tour Championship – Value Bet
Xander Schauffle – To Win 33/1
I know it’s going to be a huge ask for Schauffele to win considering the staggered scoring system.
But he is just made for East Lake and could make decent value in the place markets.
He ended last year as the lowest 72-hole scorer.
Over the course of the last 12 months, he has ranked 3rd for SG: Total. That includes 8 top five finishes in 24 appearances. He loved these Bermuda greens last season, finishing 2nd for the week in SG: Putting.
Tour Championship – The Man to Beat
Tony Finau – To Win 7/1
The smart money will surely be on Cantlay, Rahm and The Scientist this week.
I reckon Finau is better value at 7/1. He is an established regular at East Lake, teeing it up in Atlanta for the last four seasons.
He arrives in brilliant form, winning the Northern Trust and following that up with a creditable T15 at last week’s BMW Championship.
Only two strokes behind Cantlay in the scoring system, Finau can play with freedom this week after ending that title drought at the Northern Trust.
His combination of power and precision should make him an ideal candidate to contest for this week’s Tour Championship.
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2022 Tour Championship Tips by Damien Kayat
