Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips for Saturday’s racing coming your way from Ascot on 21 October 2023.
ASCOT
Race 1 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP (Group 2)
No7 TRUESHAN
Trainer: Alan King – Jockey: Hollie Doyle
TRUESHAN benefitted from enterprising tactics when plundering the Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp on Arc day, although those tactics are unlikely to be repeated here. His connections were concerned the race might otherwise turn into a sprint in the straight, but looking at this field it should be a truly run affair.
The selection overcame a tendency to race freely to win the Doncaster Cup on his previous start and can become a thorn in the side of KYPRIOS, who although sure to be sharper for his first run back when second in the Irish St Leger might have to play second fiddle to Alan King’s charge.
SWEET WILLIAM has only once run outside handicap company and could have more to offer, but COLTRANE needs to bounce back from an underwhelming effort when out of the money at Doncaster. Frankie Dettori’s mount TRAWLERMAN looks back to the form of his Ebor triumph last year, and should also earn.
Prediction: 1st TRUESHAN, 2nd Kyprios, 3rd Sweet William, 4th Trawlerman
Race 2 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES (Group 1)
No11 VADREAM (Each Way)
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes – Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
A bet I am looking forward to is mud-loving filly VADREAM, who has run some of her best races at this course. Given how much better she performs in the mud, it’s wise to forgive her some underwhelming performances such as in the July Cup, but in heavy ground at Doncaster and soft at Newmarket she respectively routed her foes. Beaten less than two lengths in the Bengough Stakes here earlier in the month, she is one of just a few who will enjoy the terrain and can earn big under a jockey who knows her well.
KINROSS brings the best form to the table as he tries to carbon copy his demolition job in the corresponding contest 12 months ago. He rates the main threat under Frankie Dettori, while respect is paid to the improving MILL STREAM and RUN TO FREEDOM, who wasn’t at his best last time but could bounce back.
Prediction: 1st VADREAM, 2nd Kinross, 3rd Run To Freedom, 4th Mill Stream
Race 3 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES (Group 1)
No5 STAY ALERT (Each Way)
Trainer: Hughie Morrison – Jockey: David Egan
FREE WIND failed to menace in the Arc, but with Dettori in her saddle is sure to attract support in this distaffers’ Group 1.
If repeating earlier efforts she should make a frame finish but the Irish will fancy their chances of stealing her thunder with Aidan O’Brien’s JACKIE OH their main protagonist. Three-year-olds have a superb record in the race, and following her staying on second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp she is going to relish stretching out to a mile and a half.
Joseph O’Brien’s ABOVE THE CURVE is a big filly that could raise her game in first time cheek pieces, and with a new jockey in her saddle.
BLUESTOCKING keeps knocking at the Group 1 door for Ralph Beckett and should also earn, but at a massive price I’ll take a chance that STAY ALERT might raise her game. Hughie Morrison’s charge was totally unsuited by the sedate pace in the Opera, and should there be a true gallop can get into the argument, as her Pretty Polly Stakes second was a very good effort. It’s one that would put her in the shake-up if repeated.
Prediction: 1st STAY ALERT, 2nd Jackie Oh, 3rd Free Wind, 4th Bluestocking, 5th Above The Curve
Race 4 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES (Group 1)
No11 TAHIYRA (Nap)
Trainer: Dermot Weld – Jockey: Chris Hayes
A man with an exceptional record with his Ascot runners over the years, Dermot Weld expressed concern about very deep ground for TAHIYRA earlier in the week, but even though the Aga Khan-owned filly isn’t especially robust she’s shown on more than one occasion that she acts in the soft. That was the going description when she was narrowly denied by Mawj in the 1,000 Guineas and the form is rock solid. She trounced her opponents in the Irish Guineas at the Curragh, and was a super winner of the Coronation Stakes here in June. Her recent Matron Stakes triumph at Leopardstown confirms that she’s in the form of her life.
PADDINGTON encountered extreme conditions when taking out the Sussex Stakes in the teeth of a storm and only had his sensational winning sequence ended by Mostahdaf in the Juddmonte International at York. Back to a mile, he will surely start favourite over the filly, but may have to give best.
NASHWA is closely matched with Paddington from York, and as she excels for Hollie Doyle can finish wherever the Coolmore favourite does.
Front runner BIG ROCK will ensure this is truly run and should keep on for a minor cheque in what has been a Classic-winning season for Christopher Head’s colt, but it’s hard to know how our own 2,000 Guineas hero CHALDEAN will perform as he tries to nullify a disappointing run at Deauville more than three months ago.
Prediction: 1st TAHIYRA, 2nd Big Rock, 3rd Paddington, 4th Nashwa
Race 5 QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES (Group 1)
No1 BAY BRIDGE
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute – Jockey: Richard Kingscote
One of the most interesting horses on view is HORIZON DORE whose connections plundered the corresponding race two years ago with Sealiway. The Dabirsim gelding made it a Pattern race hat-trick when lifting the Prix Dollar at Longchamp, and typical of French-trained challengers will enjoy the ground.
Whether Hollywoodbets have got it right in carding him as favourite is open to conjecture, as I fancy the day’s highlight will remain in English hands. BAY BRIDGE took the spoils 12 months ago when showing how much he appreciates some dig in the ground. After winning the September Stakes he ran creditably to finish sixth to Ace Impact in the Arc and is now back in his comfort zone trip-wise.
MOSTAHDAF could struggle to confirm his York superiority over Paddington, while three-year-old KING OF STEEL is going to take out a bigger chunk of the betting handle on the contest than he should, courtesy of Frankie Dettori being in his saddle.
VIA SISTINA is the only distaffer in the field but is not discounted. She can earn for George Boughey and Oisin Murphy.
Prediction: 1st BAY BRIDGE, 2nd Mostahdaf, 3rd King Of Steel, 4th Via Sistina
Race 6 BALMORAL HANDICAP
No3 SONNY LISTON (Each Way)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett – Jockey: Ryan Moore
SONNY LISTON formed part of an extraordinary exacta for his owners and trainer when second to stablemate Jimi Hendrix in the Hunt Cup here in June. Ryan Moore has ridden him on two of his four subsequent outings and the combination were unlucky not to gain consolation when the jockey’s whip got caught in a rein at Doncaster’s St Leger fixture. Sonny Liston therefore qualifies as a winner without a penalty and has to be taken seriously breaking from a central draw from which his pilot can decide which side of the track to go.
David O’Meara has won this three times since 2017 and of his quartet of challengers RHOSCOLYN might prove the best. Top weight MIGRATION won the Lincoln coming back from a break and has been absent since May.
Freshness is an integral part of his game plan and he could also figure prominently, while DOCKLANDS and RAADOBARG are in form and can’t be safely ruled out.
Prediction: 1st SONNY LISTON, 2nd Migration, 3rd Rhoscolyn, 4th Docklands, 5th Raadobarg, 6th Awaal
Bipot Perm (Races 1-6)
7, 3 x 11, 2, 4 x 5, 9, 2 x 11, 4, 9 x 1, 3 x 3, 1, 12, 9
R432 (take percentage)
Jackpot Perm (Races 3-6)
5, 9, 2, 8 x 11, 4, 9, 8 x 1, 3, 8 x 3, 1, 12, 9, 2
R240
