Darry Worthington previews all the Round 10 action below including the Auckland derby between Auckland and North Harbour, a crucial semi-final decider in Bay of Plenty v Tasman game as well as a tasty clash between runaway log-leaders Wellington and semi-final hopefuls, Hawke's Bay.
Friday 29 September
Auckland 1/11 | Draw 28/1 | Northland 11/2
It’s a big one first up with Auckland needing to grab a win here to stay in the hunt for a semi-final berth. And while Northland are out of the running for a play-off spot, they would love nothing more than to deny their fierce rivals entrance to the next phase of the tournament like a big burly bouncer outside an Auckland night club.
The hosts for Friday’s encounter have struggled for results in recent weeks losing their last two fixtures going down 12-27 to Waikato and then 18-16 to Taranaki this past weekend. The two defeats have left Auckland three-points adrift of the play-off spots.
Northland have also struggled of late and come into this one off the back of consecutive defeats going down 30-15 to Otago and then North Harbour 50-31.
I’m expecting a big response from Auckland as they go on the hunt for points and a place in the semi-finals.
Verdict: Aucland
Saturday 30 September
Wellington 42/100 | Draw 22/1 | Hawke’s Bay 9/5
Another crucial clash next up as log-leaders Wellington take on fifth-placed Hawke’s Bay. The visitors are currently a point off of Tasman on the standings and a bonus point win could well put them in for the pound seat for a semi-final berth as Tasman take on Bay of Plenty the following day.
The hosts are already assured first place on the log and while they’d want to keep their unbeaten record, they’re likely to make a couple changes for this one with a semi-final in their peripheral vision.
While Wellington can afford to rest on their laurels somewhat after last weekend’s 26-6 win over North Harbour, the same cannot be said for an Hawke’s Bay outfit that need to grab at least two-points from this one to have a chance of advancing to the semis. In all reality though, the visitors need a win here to give themselves a real chance of a knock-out game. They have been in good touch of late winning their last two games with their most recent victory being last Saturday’s 7-33 away win over cellar-dwellers, Southland.
While I would love to see the visitors remain in contention, I just can’t see them getting one over this Wellington side as they have an insanely deep talent pool to call upon.
Verdict: Wellington
Waikato 17/10 | Draw 22/1 | Canterbury 4/9
Canterbury will be looking for a win here in order to sew up second spot on the ladder and ensure they have hosting rights to a semi-final clash. The Cantabs currently lie second on the Bunnings table and are two-points clear of Taranaki, who take on North Harbour later in the day.
While Canterbury are pretty much guaranteed a semi-final, Waikato are nowhere near in the hunt as they sit eighth on the table, seven points off fourth-placed Tasman. They come into this game in pretty good form, however, beating Auckland 12-27 in Round 8 and then Otago 47-7 this past weekend.
Canterbury also have two wins under their belts over the past fortnight as they beat Southland 29-14 and Tasman 30-28.
The Cantabs tend to really move through the gears come the tail end of NPC seasons, and I can see them getting their prep for the semi-finals underway with a big win here.
Verdict: Canterbury
Sunday 1 October
Otago 17/10 | Draw 22/1 | Counties 3/5
It’s an exhibition match next up with 12th-placed Otago taking on ninth-placed Counties Manuka. There’s absolutely zero bar pride on the line here as both sides are safe from the wooden spoon and have absolutely no chance of advancing to the semi-finals.
The hosts have suffered two big defeats over the past fortnight going down 17-36 to Taranaki and then 47-7 to Waikato. They have really struggled defensively this term and have a points differential of negative 97.
Counties have been in far better form than their opponents over the past few weeks, running Tasman close but ultimately going down 27-17 in Round 8 before beating Manawatu 46-19 this past weekend.
They’re by far and away the better side. I reckon we’ll see a lot of points in this one and Counties will score the majority of them.
Verdict: Counties
Bay of Plenty 13/10 | Draw 22/1 | Tasman 3/5
The penultimate game of the will see Bay of Plenty take on Tasman in a fixture that is likely to determine which of these teams make the semi-finals. The hosts currently sit a position below Tasman in fifth but are just a point off their opponents for this weekend.
This weekend’s visitors saw their four match unbeaten run come to an end as they went down 30-28 to Canterbury last Saturday. They had a golden chance to take the fixture to extra time but a missed conversion late in the piece saw them end the fixture as losers.
Bay of Plenty, on the other hand, come into this one off the back of a narrow win as they beat cellar-dwellers Southland 23-25 in the midweek fixture. Bay were actually really lucky to win the fixture as Southland missed two penalty attempts in the final few minutes of the fixture.
While they did look nervous on Wednesday, I reckon a return to their homeground will do them good. My money is on bay winning this one and advancing to the semis.
Verdict: Bay of Plenty
Manawatu 4/6 | Draw 22/1 | Southland 23/20
Things come to a close with another game that will have no bearing on semi-final berths nor the wooden spoon but both Manawatu and Southland do have a bit to play for here with the visitors looking for their first win of the campaign while Manawatu be looking to avoid finishing second to last on the standings.
Both sides have endured poor campaigns with the hosts winning only two of their nine fixtures while Southland have won none. The Stags did come close to breaking their duck this past Wednesday as they went full on Springboks naming a bench with seven forward replacements for their 23-25 defeat to Bay of Plenty. And had it not been for two late missed penalties from Dan Hollinshead, then the Stags may well have come into this one with a chance of avoiding the wooden spoon.
The hosts for Sunday’s encounter also come into this one off the back of a defeat as they went down 46-19 to Counties Manukau this past Saturday.
I reckon it’ll beat tight old fixture but my money is on the hosts winning it.
Verdict: Manawatu
