Madison Keys has enjoyed a dream start to her 2025 campaign, winning in Adelaie before a magnificent Aussie Open title win.
2025 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 12th March
Madison Keys (5) 0.32 vs Donna Vekic (19) 2.3
Madison Keys has enjoyed a dream start to her 2025 campaign, winning in Adelaie before a magnificent Aussie Open title win. The big-serving American took a brief hiatus after the Aussie Open triumph, clearly intent on soaking up every second of her maiden Grand Slam victory. Keys barely missed a beat in her return to action, thrashing Anastasia Potapova 6-3, 6-0. She never had things all her own way against counterpuncher Elise Mertens, ultimately prevailing 6-2, 6-7, 6-4. Keys has now won 14 consecutive matches and will clearly take some beating. Having said that, she has never really got to grips with Indian Wells in the past, reaching just one quarterfinal in numerous appearances. Her flat, no-nonsense hitting style is perhaps not best suited to the more sluggish Indian Wells conditions. Also, changing the court surfaces isn’t going to change the conditions in the desert. Still, she is in the best form of her life at present, clearly galvanized by that sensational Aussie Open triumph. She will probably fancy her chances of blowing any player away from the back of the court.
19th seed Donna Vekic has been a bit of a surprise package this week. The reigning Olympic Silver Medalist has not been in great form this year. Sure, she reached the 4th round of the Aussie Open. But she was eliminated in the first round in all four of her other tournaments thus far. And she never had much reason to hope for improvement at Indian Wells: she had never gone beyond the 2nd round prior to this year’s renewal. A flat hitter with a big serve, Vekic doesn’t really have the type of variety that tends to thrive on these surfaces (she also isn’t the most fluid mover out there). But she has defied expectations this week, easing past Avanesyan before a surprise straight-sets win over Emma Navarro (who very much typifies the type of player who tends to succeed on these surfaces). Vekic has won 62% of her return points in Indian Wells this year and will look to jump on Keys 2nd serve (Keys won just 17 of 52 2nd serve points against Mertens).
The Verdict: Keys to win in three at 3- Keys leads the head-to-head 2-1. Having said that, their last meeting came all the way back at the 2019 Canadian Open. Keys clearly is in elite form and should have the consistency and depth of shot to overcome the erratic Croat. However, Keys has served 16 double faults this week and Vekic has been quite sharp on return. Perhaps there is some value opting for the three-set Keys win.
