Brendan ‘Patchy’ O’Connell previews Round 17 of the Gallagher Premiership, with Worcester vs Bristol kicking proceedings off on Friday night.
The Warriors can claim a fourth win in tonight’s Premiership match at the Sixways Stadium, but we’ll follow the conservative route and have insurance as Patchy’s best bet is Warriors plus 7.5 points on the handicap.
Worcester v Bristol – Round 17
Wayne Barnes is in charge for his 252nd Premiership match of his career and, being an overs referee, we could be in for a deluge of points
The Warriors have had a very poor season so far, especially when they were expected to have a decent campaign. Languishing 2nd off the bottom with three wins and a draw from 15 matches, they might well fancy causing an upset here.
Whilst the wind blows a gale throughout the UK, the forecast is for an easing later on this evening.
Patchy’s Pick
Conditions will need to be checked with the current total points line at 48.5 points and no bet is the call for now on that quote.
However, despite the Bears having the better back line tonight, I think the Warriors have enough in them to make this competitive. Warriors plus 7.5 points for 4.5 Units is my first Premiership bet of the weekend and my best.
Bath v Leicester – Round 17
Leicester’s form in no way dipped during the Six Nations and they will be lining this match up as a full winning bonus point opportunity.
The Tigers have won 13 from 15 matches and have scored a whopping 448 points, conceding just 263. Their opponents are the other way around having won just 2 games, conceding 454 points and scoring just 251.
Barring a few highlights, most notably the wins over Quins and Worcester, Bath have bordered mediocracy this season.
Despite having a number of decent players they just can’t get the results to flow.
Patchy’s Pick
I find this a difficult game to call, the handicap looks well set.
Bath could stay within the handicap is they can trouble the score board, there are a lot of “what if’s” to consider.
Conditions might help Bath with showers expected throughout the day and, with that in mind, just an interest on Bath for 1.5 Units , plus 10.5 points.
Harlequins v Wasps – Round 17
Quins suffered particularly badly over the two weeks that their internationals were missing. An improved performance away against Saracens last week was better and they’ll be hoping to continue in that trend.
Meanwhile, Wasps have won their last four on the trot in the Premiership and are in fifth place, just one point behind the hosts. Therefore, this match gains even more importance in terms of the win.
Patchy’s Pick
The visitors are gathering a head of steam and I fancy Wasps to compound Harlequins’ recent woes in handing out a third consecutive defeat.
I’m not overly confident, but if the visitors play their cards right, they should get the win.
2 Units Wasps plus 0.5 points is the call.
London Irish v Saracens – Round 17
By staying faithful to the Exiles for the second week in a row, I was happy to see them not only beat the handicap against Bristol but actually go on to win the game 32-49. Having said that, Bristol were reduced to 14 men for the remaining 22 minutes of the match but made it count.
Saracens were held to a draw by the Exiles in the reverse fixture back in November, despite being issued a red card in the early stages.
Patchy’s Pick
Consistency is the achilles heel of the hosts but they have shown improvement this season. I’m expecting Sarries to win this game, however, and feel there will be lots of points if the weather allows.
The handicap might be a point or two low as I think Sarries will put in a good effort but, in case they don’t, just the total points line may be enough for me here.
No quotes at present but would go overs if around 52.5 points or so.
Northampton v Sale – Round 17
The host’s form has been patchy this season with some excellent runs followed by some bewildering losses. Saints have won four out of their last five home fixtures against Sale and four out of their six home matches this season. It’s been entertaining to watch Sale the last few weeks as they have given their conservative game plan the boot and instead have embraced a more aggressive attacking approach, this has been evidenced by their 14 tries in their last three matches.
Patchy’s Pick
I’m going to swim against the current in this one. With most pundits expecting Sale to cover this handicap, I’m going the other way and am expecting Saints to make a right game of this.
If that’s the case then 3 Units on the Saints plus 4.5 points is a confident call.
Newcastle v Exeter – Round 17
The wheels have fallen off for the Falcons in recent weeks after enjoying a good start to the season. They’ve lost their last five matches in the Premiership and their home record is not much better either, scraping just two wins and a draw from six games. They are not without hope here however and could potentially give Exeter a scare should the former champions approach the game with any complacency.
It’s not a game I’ll get too involved in and will look rather at total points.
Patchy’s Pick
An artificial pitch but showers, wind and sunshine expected during the early afternoon – I think we could be in for a scrappy affair.
The last three games points have totalled 24, 42 and 41 points respectively. Quotes aren’t out yet but will be looking to have a go at unders in the total points market. Fingers crossed the quote is early 50’s and if so it’s worth 2.5 Units on going unders.
Have a great weekend! Follow all of my tips on Twitter @BrenHbetsnet.
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