Brendan ‘Patchy’ O’Connell previews Round 15 of the Gallagher Premiership with Bristol vs London Irish kicking things off on Friday night.
Bristol v London Irish – Round 15
The Exiles were horrid last week but can be forgiven and Irish eyes should be smiling all around this weekend with a more polished performance come Friday night.
The Bears disposed of Newcastle easily enough last week and despite showing much better form of late, they are still not the same package they were last year. They’re slowly climbing up the table but their playoff hopes may already be dashed due their poor start.
London Irish were disappointing last week against the high-flying Gloucester side who now are in third spot on the table. Despite starting the match well and with ample opportunities to score, it was they who conceded the first try and from then on never looked likely to put in a blow. It will be silly to write them off after that loss though, but they’ll need a change at hooker if they are to have any hope of winning a lineout.
Patchy’s Pick
If the Exiles had taken their early chances against Gloucester last week the result may well have been quite different.
I’m expecting Irish to bounce back here but have reservations about Creevy’s understudy at hooker, just 3 Units Irish plus 8.5 but it is still a fairly confident call.
Leicester v Northampton – Round 15
The Tigers continued their impressive season and remain top of the log when beating the Warriors 36-16. With just two losses so far in the Premiership and unbeaten at home they will provide Saints with a formidable task to overcome. One stat to note though is that the Saints have won 3 out of the last 4 matches played at Welford Road.
Patchy’s Pick
The handicap looks accurately priced at this stage what may make me lean towards the Saints is their bye last week, but for now no bet.
Exeter v Gloucester – Round 15
Exeter put up a stirling fight against Wasps last week, leading 21-8 at HT, but they couldn’t sustain their effort and were unlucky losers in the end.
They face another tough task here as Gloucester arrive in shining form. Sitting 3rd on the log with 9 wins from 14 matches, they also boast a record of 5 away wins, a draw and just one loss on their travels.
However Exeter are unbeaten against Gloucester in their last 6 meetings at home.
Patchy’s Pick
I’m a little concerned about the history in this match but also troubled about the manner in which Exeter blew such a good lead last week.
Sandy Park is no longer that fortress it used to be as the Chiefs have lost 3 at home this season now.
Despite an initial thought that Exeter would be the more desperate of the two sides, I find this match too close to call. However, total points could be the way to go.
There is a 40% chance of showers and I think defences could be on top in this one.
Thoughts are going unders for 3 Units at around the 46.5 points mark .
Sale v Worcester – Round 15
Much to my disappointment Harlequins were no match for Sale without their star players on Sunday and were taken to the cleaners by a Sale outfit which appears to have the bit firmly between its teeth.
For those of you who have read previous columns, Sale are one of my favourites sides but have been plagued by discipline and failure to see out the full 80 minutes. Those days now seem behind them and Quin’s for that matter look likely to struggle while their stars are away.
But back to Sale who will be eyeing out a full 5-point haul here, which will bring them ever closer to the playoff berths. They are now scoring off first phase ball while their defence is stout and tough to breakdown.
The Warriors meanwhile just can’t seem to improve and with just 3 wins to their name this season will probably have to wait until next season, when a major overhaul is expected at Sixways.
Patchy’s Pick
Sale have been guilty of not covering their handicap margins in the past but with their current form that line of form can be thrown out the window. They did hammer Ospreys in the Champions Cup 49-10 and if Worcester give them the opportunity it could get very ugly and fast.
Even with a line of 20.5 points I think Sale have found their “ mojo “. I’m taking 4 Units Sale minus 20.5 points on the handicap.
Wasps v Bath – Round 15
Wasps were heavily backed last week, starting off early in the week at plus 4 points were eventually minus 4 points for their match against Exeter. It took them a while but they managed to pull off a narrow one-point win at Sandy Park.
Returning to Coventry and with returning players joining the squad, they should manage to pick up another win against struggling Bath who were able to score a solitary 3 points in their last start.
Patchy’s Pick
It’s back to ground zero for Bath after another huge defeat against Saracens last week and Wasps will be eyeing this out as a 4-try haul.
The weather could possibly dampen that thinking as there are some showers forecast, but for now 3 Units on minus 17.5 points is the suggestion.
Saracens v Harlequins – Round 15
Sarries waited until the second half before “squashing” Bath with relative ease last week but this time around have a potentially stronger challenge to contend with.
Currently lying second in the log and despite a number of players away on internationals, they really should be able to pick up another win here based on Harlequins last performance.
Quins were so poor last week with a number of handling errors stopping any momentum from growing. Their pack also showed its current vulnerabilities and they could be in for a pasting at scrum time if they don’t come up with a plan to stem the infringements.
The hosts have won their last 5 premiership matches at home against Quins, with their biggest margin being 21 points in 2017.
Patchy’s Pick
I think we won’t see as bad a performance from Quins as we did last week for the remainder of the season, though they do appear to be the side struggling the most without their internationals.
Their pack is particularly vulnerable and as a result I’m going in with the half time handicap as my suggested bet.
Quins should put up a fair old fight early on and Sarries can take time to grind down the opposition, 3 Units Quins plus 7.5 points at the break is warm order.
Have a super weekend and happy punting. Follow me on Twitter @BrenHbetsnet to let me know how I’m doing!
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